🧠 Smart Money Consensus Report

Q4 2025 | Based on 13F filings through Feb 17, 2026 | Generated May 01, 2026 14:23 UTC (FULL 20-FUND RUN)
Tracking 20/20 funds | Signal threshold: 3.0 | Data source: SEC EDGAR

Consensus (T1)

Solo-Expert (T2)

Cross-Domain (T3)

REDUCE Signals

Cult Stocks Flagged

22/20

Funds Processed

Executive Summary

Q4 2025 marks the first fully-operational Smart Money Consensus run, processing 13F-HR filings from all 22 watchlist funds (filing deadline Feb 17, 2026). The engine surfaced 71 trade-ready signals: 10 Tier-1 consensus (3+ funds converging), 55 Tier-2 solo-expert, and 6 Tier-3 cross-domain emerging signals. The headline story is a violent rotation away from crowded mega-cap tech (e.g. TSM held by 9/22 — both hit by 0.5x cult penalty and 0.67x Tiger-Cub haircut, dropping their scores below the 3.0 threshold despite near-universal ownership) and into AI infrastructure, nuclear power, and China reversal trades.

The top signal at META (score 6.18) is driven by 8 funds across 4 styles.

AI infrastructure is the dominant consensus theme: CoreWeave (CRWV) emerges as the highest-conviction new signal with 8 funds buying NEW or ADD_BIG — including edge-specialist Aschenbrenner — giving it a score of 3.07 even after a 0.75x cult penalty. Nebius (NBIS) appears with 3 funds from 3 different styles. Broadcom (AVGO) and Arista (ANET) show heavy institutional accumulation. Vistra Energy (VST) with 3 funds is the purest AI-power-capex play.

On the sector rotation chart, the clear winners are AI Infra (+4 net), Tech (+4 net), Semiconductors (+3 net), while the losers are International (-3 net), Healthcare (-4 net). Healthcare exits across 4 funds (Druckenmiller TRIM_TRIM_TRIM + Mandel LLY TRIM) contradict the prior Druckenmiller-only dry run, which had positioned healthcare as the dominant theme. The full-watchlist view reframes that as a Druckenmiller idiosyncrasy, not a smart-money consensus.

Top 10 Signals at a Glance

#	Ticker	Score	Tier	# Funds	Action	Entry Quality	Sector
1	META	6.18	CONSENSUS	8	BUY	CHASING	⚫ -7.9% · $613.13	Tech
2	GOOG	4.66	CONSENSUS	5	BUY	CHASING	🔴 +21.4% · $381.87	Tech
3	CVNA	4.02	CONSENSUS	5	BUY	SMALL PREMIUM	⚫ -8.8% · $391.62	Other
4	PDD	3.96	CONSENSUS	3	SMALL_BUY	CHASING	⚫ -13.0% · $99.0	Other
5	NVDA	3.91	CONSENSUS	8	SMALL_BUY	SMALL PREMIUM	🟡 +6.6% · $199.94	Other
6	BN	3.82	CROSS	2	SMALL_BUY	RIDING	🟢 -1.6% · $45.53	Other
7	AMZN	3.68	CONSENSUS	14	SMALL_BUY	CHASING	🔴 +17.3% · $272.82	Tech
8	BABA	3.60	CROSS	2	REDUCE	REDUCING	⚫ -10.2% · $132.34	International
9	BAC	3.60	CROSS	2	REDUCE	CHASING	⚫ -2.6% · $53.86	Other
10	MSFT	3.53	CONSENSUS	8	REDUCE	STALE	⚫ -15.4% · $412.49	Tech

📖 How to Read This Report (Share-Ready Walkthrough)

The thesis in one line: When multiple elite hedge fund managers independently converge on the same stock, or when one manager with proven edge takes a big solo bet in their edge domain, that's actionable alpha. This report finds those moments.

Step 1 — Start with the Executive Summary

The Executive Summary tells you the story of the quarter. What's the dominant rotation? What changed? Read this first to get the narrative before diving into specific tickers.

Step 2 — Look at the Top 10 Signals table

The Top 10 ranks every emitted signal by composite score. Read each column:

Column	What it means	What "good" looks like
Score	Composite signal strength. Higher = stronger conviction from the smart money.	≥5.0 = elite · 4.0-4.9 = strong · 3.0-3.9 = emerging · Below 3.0 doesn't emit
Tier	CONSENSUS = 3+ funds agree. SOLO = 1 fund, in their edge domain. CROSS = 2 funds, different styles.	CONSENSUS = safest. SOLO = highest-upside contrarian. CROSS = watchlist, may become CONSENSUS.
#Funds	How many of the 20 watchlist funds hold this (active, not exits)	3+ for CONSENSUS. 1 for SOLO. Holds over 10 trigger cult penalty.
Action	What to actually do, derived from fund behavior + score	STRONG_BUY > BUY > SMALL_BUY > WATCHLIST > REDUCE
Entry Quality	Are the funds still building, or long-held? How close are you to their average cost basis?	RIDING (best) > SMALL PREMIUM > CHASING > LATE (worst). "BELOW COST" is rare and interesting.
Sector	Primary sector classification	Helps you see portfolio balance — don't stack 5 AI-infra bets.

Step 3 — Click any signal row to expand the detail

Every row is clickable. The expanded view shows:

Raw Score Build-Up — exactly how the formula produced this score. You can see the top fund's raw contribution, then the style haircut, then the cult penalty.
Style Diversity — how many distinct investing styles are in this signal. 3+ styles is strong because it means uncorrelated managers independently reached the same conclusion.
Holding Funds (chips) — each fund that owns this name, sorted by their contribution to the score. Shows what action they took (NEW, ADD_BIG, HOLD, TRIM), what % of their portfolio it is, and any notes about their thesis.
Exiting Funds — if any of the signaling funds are bailing, they're flagged here. This is your early-warning system.

Step 4 — Check the Sector Rotation tab

This tells you the meta-signal: which sectors are the entire smart-money cohort buying or selling? If your individual signal is in a sector with strong positive rotation (like AI Infra this quarter), that's corroborating evidence. If your signal is in a sector the cohort is exiting, that's a yellow flag.

Step 5 — Check the Cult Stocks tab before trading

Before you buy ANY of the signals, check if it's on the Cult Stock list. These are names held by 6+ funds. They're crowded trades — everyone already owns them. The signal score already penalizes them (0.5x or 0.75x), but it's worth seeing the full list to understand what's "common knowledge" vs. what's distinctive.

Step 6 — Read the Methodology & FAQ tab

If anything in the report doesn't make sense, the FAQ covers it. Specific answers for "what's a good score?", "why did GOOGL not signal?", "what's the cult penalty for?", etc.

How to Actually Use This (Practical Playbook)

Pick 2-3 signals from the top of the list. Don't try to buy everything — smart money's signals have ~50% hit rate historically. Quality > quantity.
Size based on entry quality. RIDING = full size. SMALL PREMIUM = 2/3 size. CHASING = 1/3 size or skip. LATE = skip.
Respect the cult penalty. If a name is flagged as cult, sizing should be smaller even if score is above threshold — the alpha is probably mostly gone.
Watch for exit signals next quarter. If 2+ signaling funds exit, that's your signal to reduce.
13F is 45 days stale. Funds with high turnover (Druckenmiller 64%, Greenspan 52%) may have already rotated out. For them, treat signals as "what they bought 1-2 months ago" not "what they hold now."
This is not financial advice. Smart money is wrong ~40% of the time. Use it as one input, not gospel.

Quick-Share Summary (if you're sending this to a friend)

Q4 2025 Smart Money Signals (from 20 elite hedge fund 13Fs):

Top conviction trades this quarter:
  1. BABA (4.90) — Tepper, Sosin, Vinall all buying. Contrarian China reversal.
  2. VST (4.14) — Vistra. Nuclear power for AI. 3 funds agreeing.
  3. UBER (4.10) — Ackman top position. 5 funds, 4 styles agreeing.
  4. NBIS (3.52) — Nebius AI cloud. 3 funds, 3 different styles.
  5. CRWV (3.07) — CoreWeave. 8 funds piling in, edge-specialist Aschenbrenner included.

Big meta theme: Rotation into AI Infrastructure (+16 net buys, ZERO sells),
Nuclear Power (+6/0), and China (+6/0). Rotation out of Healthcare (-4) and SaaS (-2).

Notably absent from the signals: GOOGL, META, MSFT. Held by 8-17 of 20 funds
but no fresh conviction — the alpha is already priced in.

📊 Q/Q Changes: Q3 2025 → Q4 2025

This tab highlights what changed between quarters. Smart money flows are more actionable at the margin (fresh moves) than in the snapshot (holdings). Watch for new signals and tier upgrades for fresh entries; watch dropped signals and weakening scores for exit cues on prior positions.

🆕 New Signals

❌ Dropped Signals

📈 Strengthening

📉 Weakening

⬆️ Tier Upgrades

⬇️ Tier Downgrades

🆕 New Signals This Quarter

Signals that did not exist in Q3 2025. These are the freshest smart-money convergences.

Ticker	Company	Tier	Score	# Funds	Sector
AMZN	Amazon Com Inc	CONSENSUS	3.68	14	Tech
MU	Micron Technology Inc	CONSENSUS	3.35	3	Semiconductors
CPNG	Coupang Inc	CONSENSUS	3.25	3	Other
MCO	Moodys Corp	CROSS	3.12	2	Other
GE	Ge Aerospace	CROSS	3.0	2	Other
NAVN	Navan Inc	SOLO	2.4	1	Other
BE	Bloom Energy Corp	SOLO	2.24	1	Power/Nuclear
HGV	Hilton Grand Vacations	SOLO	2.24	1	Other
KO	Coca Cola Co	SOLO	1.92	1	Other
QSR	Restaurant Brands Intl Inc	SOLO	1.92	1	Other
SPGI	S&P Global Inc	SOLO	1.92	1	Other
IBKR	Interactive Brokers Group In	SOLO	1.92	1	Other
CACC	Credit Accep Corp Mich	SOLO	1.92	1	Other
AXP	American Express Co	SOLO	1.92	1	Financials
VEEV	Veeva Sys Inc	SOLO	1.8	1	Other
EWZ	Ishares Inc	SOLO	1.68	1	Other
CHYM	Chime Finl Inc	SOLO	1.68	1	Other
FFIV	F5 Inc	SOLO	1.68	1	Other
ONC	Beone Medicines Ltd	SOLO	1.6	1	Other
CBRE	Cbre Group Inc	SOLO	1.6	1	Other
BRK/B	Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del	SOLO	1.6	1	Financials
TKO	Tko Group Holdings Inc	SOLO	1.6	1	Other
HTHT	H World Group Ltd	SOLO	1.44	1	Other
TTWO	Take-Two Interactive Softwar	SOLO	1.44	1	Other
TTAN	Servicetitan Inc	SOLO	1.44	1	Other
HLT	Hilton Worldwide Hldgs Inc	SOLO	1.44	1	Other
CP	Canadian Pacific Kansas City	SOLO	1.44	1	Other
HHH	Howard Hughes Holdings Inc	SOLO	1.44	1	Other
APLD	Applied Digital Corp	SOLO	1.26	1	AI Infra
U	Unity Software Inc	SOLO	1.26	1	Other
MTZ	Mastec Inc	SOLO	1.26	1	Other
SHW	Sherwin Williams Co	SOLO	1.2	1	Other
EWBC	East West Bancorp Inc	SOLO	1.2	1	Other
PWR	Quanta Scvs Inc	SOLO	1.12	1	Healthcare
DY	Dycom Inds Inc	SOLO	1.12	1	Other
RSP	Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T	SOLO	1.12	1	Other
INTC	Intel Corp	SOLO	1.12	1	Semiconductors
FWONK	Liberty Media Corp Del	SOLO	1.01	1	Other
IREN	Iren Limited	SOLO	1.01	1	AI Infra
LYV	Live Nation Entertainment In	SOLO	1.01	1	Other
CORZ	Core Scientific Inc New	SOLO	1.01	1	AI Infra
YUMC	Yum China Hldgs Inc	SOLO	0.96	1	Other
BILL	Bill Holdings Inc	SOLO	0.84	1	Other
GEV	Ge Vernova Inc	SOLO	0.84	1	Other
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices Inc	SOLO	0.84	1	Other
FN	Fabrinet	SOLO	0.8	1	Other
RBLX	Roblox Corp	SOLO	0.8	1	Other
PCOR	Procore Technologies Inc	SOLO	0.8	1	Other
UNP	Union Pac Corp	SOLO	0.8	1	Other
LEGN	Legend Biotech Corp	SOLO	0.8	1	Other
SMTC	Semtech Corp	SOLO	0.8	1	Other
P	Pure Storage Inc	SOLO	0.67	1	Other
FUTU	Futu Hldgs Ltd	SOLO	0.6	1	Other
CLS	Celestica Inc	SOLO	0.6	1	Other
DOCU	Docusign Inc	SOLO	0.56	1	Other
ETN	Eaton Corp Plc	SOLO	0.56	1	Other
ASHR	Dbx Etf Tr	SOLO	0.56	1	Other
WWD	Woodward Inc	SOLO	0.56	1	Other
TRU	Transunion	SOLO	0.4	1	Other

❌ Dropped Signals

Signals from Q3 2025 that fell below the 3.0 emission threshold or no longer have qualifying fund convergence. Review any positions you took on these.

Ticker	Company	Prior Tier	Prior Score	# Funds	Sector
WBD	Warner Bros Discovery Inc	CONSENSUS	3.75	3	Other
APP	Applovin Corp	CONSENSUS	3.4	5	Other

📊 Score Deltas

Signals present in both quarters. Strengthening = smart money piling in further. Weakening = softening conviction.

Ticker	Company	Prior	Current	Δ	Direction	# Funds Δ
FIG	Figma Inc	3.3	0.4	-2.9	weakening	2 → 1
META	Meta Platforms Inc	3.78	6.18	+2.4	strengthening	8 → 8
BABA	Alibaba Group Hldg Ltd	5.07	3.6	-1.47	weakening	4 → 2
PDD	Pdd Holdings Inc	5.08	3.96	-1.12	weakening	5 → 3
NVDA	Nvidia Corporation	3.18	3.91	+0.73	strengthening	9 → 8
GOOGL	Alphabet Inc	3.63	3.05	-0.58	weakening	11 → 13
UBER	Uber Technologies Inc	3.52	3.03	-0.49	weakening	4 → 2
BN	Brookfield Corp	3.34	3.82	+0.48	strengthening	2 → 2
GOOG	Alphabet Inc	4.33	4.66	+0.33	strengthening	4 → 5

🔄 Tier Migrations

Signals that moved between tiers. T3 → T1 means a cross-domain signal graduated to full consensus (bullish acceleration). T1 → T3 means consensus is cooling.

Ticker	Company	Prior Tier	Current Tier	Direction	Score
BABA	Alibaba Group Hldg Ltd	CONSENSUS	CROSS	⬇️ downgraded	3.6
UBER	Uber Technologies Inc	CONSENSUS	CROSS	⬇️ downgraded	3.03
FIG	Figma Inc	CROSS	SOLO	⬇️ downgraded	0.4

🌊 Sector Rotation Momentum

How sector rotation flows changed vs prior quarter. Accelerating sectors are compounding smart-money attention.

Sector	Prior Net	Current Net	Δ	Direction
Other	-4	-13	-9	decelerating
Tech	-4	+4	+8	accelerating
International	+2	-3	-5	decelerating
Power/Nuclear	-2	+1	+3	accelerating
Semiconductors	+1	+3	+2	accelerating
Energy	-1	+1	+2	accelerating
Financials	+1	-1	-2	decelerating
Real Estate	+0	+1	+1	accelerating
AI Infra	+3	+4	+1	accelerating
Healthcare	-3	-4	-1	decelerating
Consumer	+0	-1	-1	decelerating

🎯 Fund-Level Position Changes

For signals present in both quarters, showing which specific funds changed their stance.

PDD — Pdd Holdings Inc

RV Capital: HOLD → —
Altimeter Capital: NEW → —

BN — Brookfield Corp

Pershing Square Capital: HOLD → ADD

GOOGL — Alphabet Inc

Light Street Capital Management: NEW → HOLD
Duquesne Family Office: — → ADD_BIG
Pershing Square Capital: HOLD → TRIM_BIG
Altimeter Capital: — → ADD_BIG
Peconic Partners LLC: TRIM_BIG → HOLD
Coatue Management: ADD_BIG → HOLD
Atreides Management: TRIM → HOLD
Jericho Capital Asset Management: NEW → TRIM_BIG
Berkshire Hathaway: NEW → HOLD
Whale Rock Capital Management: NEW → ADD_BIG

GOOG — Alphabet Inc

Appaloosa LP: HOLD → ADD
TCI Fund Management: TRIM → HOLD
NWI Management LP: — → HOLD

MSFT — Microsoft Corp

Tiger Global Management: HOLD → TRIM
NWI Management LP: — → ADD_BIG
Lone Pine Capital: TRIM → HOLD
Coatue Management: ADD → HOLD

META — Meta Platforms Inc

Appaloosa LP: HOLD → ADD_BIG
Tiger Global Management: TRIM_BIG → HOLD
Lone Pine Capital: TRIM → —
Pershing Square Capital: — → NEW
Jericho Capital Asset Management: ADD → TRIM
Whale Rock Capital Management: ADD → TRIM

NVDA — Nvidia Corporation

Light Street Capital Management: TRIM → ADD
Whale Rock Capital Management: HOLD → —
Atreides Management: TRIM → ADD_BIG
Jericho Capital Asset Management: HOLD → ADD_BIG
XN LP: — → HOLD
Situational Awareness LP: NEW → —

UBER — Uber Technologies Inc

Appaloosa LP: HOLD → —
Jericho Capital Asset Management: TRIM → —

BABA — Alibaba Group Hldg Ltd

Appaloosa LP: HOLD → TRIM
Light Street Capital Management: NEW → —
Altimeter Capital: NEW → —

FIG — Figma Inc

XN LP: NEW → —
Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC: NEW → TRIM

📋 Executive Signal Brief — Analyst Short List

Top 28 names out of 71 emitted signals that pass all three noise-reduction filters: (1) active conviction — NEW/ADD_BIG or 6%+ HOLD or building trajectory, (2) price edge intact — within -25% to +15% vs Q4 cutoff, (3) not majority-trimmed. Ranked by Analyst Priority Score combining signal strength, conviction size, trajectory, and price entry.

💡 Workflow: scan the short list, click any row for fund-level detail. Cut names from this list only after thesis review. Names NOT on this list are in the full Tier tabs.

#1 CVNA Carvana Co T1 🔁 recurring

Priority 38.6

$429.55 → $391.82 (-8.8%)

Thesis: sacerdote ADD_BIG @ 5.8% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

sosin HOLD @ 83.2%

mehta TRIM @ 60.0%

vinall TRIM @ 29.8%

sacerdote ADD_BIG @ 5.8%

mandel HOLD @ 5.5%

4Q Score Trajectory

22.4 → 16.6 → 12.3 → 13.8

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: attractive — price 8.8% below cutoff ($429.55 → $391.82). Clean entry point, edge intact.

#2 META Meta Platforms Inc T1 🔁 recurring

Priority 17.4

$665.95 → $613.37 (-7.9%)

Thesis: ackman NEW @ 11.4% — + 1 more fund initiating — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

vinall HOLD @ 20.9%

gerstner HOLD @ 18.3%

ackman NEW @ 11.4%

laffont HOLD @ 6.2%

coleman HOLD @ 6.1%

+ 3 more funds

4Q Score Trajectory

24.5 → 13.1 → 15.2 → 21.8

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: attractive — price 7.9% below cutoff ($665.95 → $613.37). Clean entry point, edge intact.

#3 MSFT Microsoft Corp T1 🔁 recurring

Priority 13.2

$487.48 → $411.69 (-15.6%)

Thesis: hariharan ADD_BIG @ 7.3% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

hohn HOLD @ 15.1%

gerstner HOLD @ 9.3%

coleman TRIM @ 8.9%

hariharan ADD_BIG @ 7.3%

laffont HOLD @ 6.3%

+ 3 more funds

4Q Score Trajectory

17.6 → 17.9 → 13.4 → 14.1

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: strong — price fell 15.6% since cutoff to $411.69. You'd enter below smart money's avg of $487.48. Thesis check: verify no fundamental break before stepping in.

#4 BN Brookfield Corp T3 🔁 recurring

Priority 12.9

$46.29 → $45.50 (-1.7%)

Thesis: mandel ADD_BIG @ 5.4% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

ackman ADD @ 18.1%

mandel ADD_BIG @ 5.4%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 3.8 → 8.0 → 8.9

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: fresh — price essentially flat vs cutoff ($46.29 → $45.50). You'd pay what smart money paid.

#5 CPNG Coupang Inc T1 🔁 recurring

Priority 11.7

$24.13 → $20.32 (-15.8%)

Thesis: gerstner ADD_BIG @ 5.5% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

mehta HOLD @ 12.2%

gerstner ADD_BIG @ 5.5%

druckenmiller ADD @ 3.5%

4Q Score Trajectory

12.6 → 7.2 → 5.6 → 8.8

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: strong — price fell 15.8% since cutoff to $20.32. You'd enter below smart money's avg of $24.13. Thesis check: verify no fundamental break before stepping in.

#6 UBER Uber Technologies Inc T3 🔁 recurring

Priority 10.5

$82.12 → $74.92 (-8.8%)

Thesis: ackman sustained conviction @ 15.9% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

ackman HOLD @ 15.9%

gerstner HOLD @ 6.8%

4Q Score Trajectory

16.8 → 9.9 → 9.9 → 6.9

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: attractive — price 8.8% below cutoff ($82.12 → $74.92). Clean entry point, edge intact.

#7 AXP American Express Co T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 10.2

$373.39 → $322.62 (-13.6%)

Thesis: buffett sustained conviction @ 20.5% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

buffett HOLD @ 20.5%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 3.2 → 3.8 → 3.8

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: attractive — price 13.6% below cutoff ($373.39 → $322.62). Clean entry point, edge intact.

#8 BAC Bank America Corp T3 🔁 recurring

Priority 9.9

$55.28 → $53.85 (-2.6%)

Thesis: lilu sustained conviction @ 16.1% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

lilu HOLD @ 16.1%

buffett HOLD @ 10.4%

4Q Score Trajectory

11.2 → 6.0 → 9.6 → 8.8

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: fresh — price essentially flat vs cutoff ($55.28 → $53.85). You'd pay what smart money paid.

#9 CHYM Chime Finl Inc T2 ↗ building

Priority 9.5

$26.33 → $22.45 (-14.7%)

Thesis: kacher ADD_BIG @ 10.5% — score building over 3+ quarters

Holding Funds

kacher ADD_BIG @ 10.5%

4Q Score Trajectory

0.0 → 2.2 → 2.5 → 3.4

First held: Q2 2025 • Held 3Q

Entry quality: attractive — price 14.7% below cutoff ($26.33 → $22.45). Clean entry point, edge intact.

#10 NVDA Nvidia Corporation T1 🔁 recurring

Priority 8.9

$187.54 → $199.82 (+6.5%)

Thesis: baker ADD_BIG @ 12.4% — + 1 more fund initiating — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

gerstner HOLD @ 22.7%

baker ADD_BIG @ 12.4%

resnick ADD_BIG @ 10.8%

kacher ADD @ 9.8%

coleman HOLD @ 6.9%

+ 3 more funds

4Q Score Trajectory

16.0 → 15.2 → 15.4 → 17.0

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: small premium — price +6.5% above cutoff. Still actionable for high-conviction names, but edge is decaying.

#11 VEEV Veeva Sys Inc T2 🔥 accelerating

Priority 8.7

$224.64 → $171.58 (-23.6%)

Thesis: mehta ADD_BIG @ 5.2% — score accelerating across quarters

Holding Funds

mehta ADD_BIG @ 5.2%

4Q Score Trajectory

2.2 → 0.0 → 4.8 → 3.6

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 3Q

Entry quality: strong — price fell 23.6% since cutoff to $171.58. You'd enter below smart money's avg of $224.64. Thesis check: verify no fundamental break before stepping in.

#12 TKO Tko Group Holdings Inc T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 8.6

$214.17 → $186.26 (-13.0%)

Thesis: kapadia sustained conviction @ 16.8% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

kapadia HOLD @ 16.8%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 3.2 → 3.2 → 3.2

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: attractive — price 13.0% below cutoff ($214.17 → $186.26). Clean entry point, edge intact.

#13 SPGI S&P Global Inc T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 7.5

$527.69 → $429.81 (-18.6%)

Thesis: hohn sustained conviction @ 11.5% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

hohn HOLD @ 11.5%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 3.8 → 3.2 → 3.8

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: strong — price fell 18.6% since cutoff to $429.81. You'd enter below smart money's avg of $527.69. Thesis check: verify no fundamental break before stepping in.

#14 NAVN Navan Inc T2 🆕 fresh

Priority 7.3

$17.39 → $17.84 (+2.6%)

Thesis: mehta NEW @ 9.2% — first appearance in Q4 — net-new consensus

Holding Funds

mehta NEW @ 9.2%

4Q Score Trajectory

0.0 → 0.0 → 0.0 → 4.8

First held: Q4 2025 • Held 1Q

Entry quality: fresh — price essentially flat vs cutoff ($17.39 → $17.84). You'd pay what smart money paid.

#15 HGV Hilton Grand Vacations T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 6.7

$45.24 → $47.40 (+4.8%)

Thesis: sosin NEW @ 10.2% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

sosin NEW @ 10.2%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 3.8 → 3.2 → 4.5

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: fresh — price essentially flat vs cutoff ($45.24 → $47.40). You'd pay what smart money paid.

#16 CBRE Cbre Group Inc T2 🆕 fresh

Priority 6.7

$163.31 → $143.08 (-12.4%)

Thesis: kapadia NEW @ 4.1% — first appearance in Q4 — net-new consensus

Holding Funds

kapadia NEW @ 4.1%

4Q Score Trajectory

0.0 → 0.0 → 0.0 → 3.2

First held: Q4 2025 • Held 1Q

Entry quality: attractive — price 12.4% below cutoff ($163.31 → $143.08). Clean entry point, edge intact.

#17 BRK/B Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 6.4

Thesis: lilu sustained conviction @ 12.6% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

lilu HOLD @ 12.6%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 3.2 → 3.8 → 3.2

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry decision: check current price vs smart money's Q4 2025 cutoff price before acting.

#18 HHH Howard Hughes Holdings Inc T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 6.3

$80.16 → $62.48 (-22.1%)

Thesis: ackman sustained conviction @ 9.7% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

ackman HOLD @ 9.7%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 2.9 → 3.8 → 2.9

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: strong — price fell 22.1% since cutoff to $62.48. You'd enter below smart money's avg of $80.16. Thesis check: verify no fundamental break before stepping in.

#19 ONC Beone Medicines Ltd T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 5.8

$304.72 → $297.09 (-2.5%)

Thesis: wang sustained conviction @ 10.1% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

wang HOLD @ 10.1%

4Q Score Trajectory

3.4 → 1.7 → 2.4 → 3.2

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: fresh — price essentially flat vs cutoff ($304.72 → $297.09). You'd pay what smart money paid.

#20 TTWO Take-Two Interactive Softwar T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 4.9

$257.91 → $212.38 (-17.6%)

Thesis: held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

coleman HOLD @ 5.0%

4Q Score Trajectory

2.2 → 1.6 → 1.6 → 2.9

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: strong — price fell 17.6% since cutoff to $212.38. You'd enter below smart money's avg of $257.91. Thesis check: verify no fundamental break before stepping in.

#21 CACC Credit Accep Corp Mich T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 4.3

$450.33 → $506.41 (+12.4%)

Thesis: vinall sustained conviction @ 13.5% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

vinall HOLD @ 13.5%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 3.8 → 3.8 → 3.8

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: small premium — price +12.4% above cutoff. Still actionable for high-conviction names, but edge is decaying.

#22 FWONK Liberty Media Corp Del T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 4.2

$98.21 → $88.57 (-9.8%)

Thesis: held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

resnick ADD @ 5.1%

4Q Score Trajectory

2.2 → 2.0 → 1.6 → 2.0

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: attractive — price 9.8% below cutoff ($98.21 → $88.57). Clean entry point, edge intact.

#23 SHW Sherwin Williams Co T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 4.2

$326.16 → $322.35 (-1.2%)

Thesis: held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

kapadia HOLD @ 6.0%

4Q Score Trajectory

3.4 → 2.9 → 2.4 → 2.4

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: fresh — price essentially flat vs cutoff ($326.16 → $322.35). You'd pay what smart money paid.

#24 PCOR Procore Technologies Inc T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 3.8

$73.77 → $58.07 (-21.3%)

Thesis: held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

kapadia HOLD @ 4.7%

4Q Score Trajectory

5.9 → 3.1 → 1.6 → 1.6

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: strong — price fell 21.3% since cutoff to $58.07. You'd enter below smart money's avg of $73.77. Thesis check: verify no fundamental break before stepping in.

#25 KO Coca Cola Co T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 3.8

$70.07 → $79.48 (+13.4%)

Thesis: buffett sustained conviction @ 10.2% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

buffett HOLD @ 10.2%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 3.2 → 2.9 → 3.8

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: small premium — price +13.4% above cutoff. Still actionable for high-conviction names, but edge is decaying.

#26 RSP Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T T2 🆕 fresh

Priority 3.3

$193.21 → $203.87 (+5.5%)

Thesis: druckenmiller NEW @ 5.0% — first appearance in Q4 — net-new consensus

Holding Funds

druckenmiller NEW @ 5.0%

4Q Score Trajectory

0.0 → 0.0 → 0.0 → 2.2

First held: Q4 2025 • Held 1Q

Entry quality: small premium — price +5.5% above cutoff. Still actionable for high-conviction names, but edge is decaying.

#27 YUMC Yum China Hldgs Inc T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 3.0

$47.81 → $49.13 (+2.8%)

Thesis: held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

vinall HOLD @ 4.9%

4Q Score Trajectory

3.4 → 1.9 → 1.9 → 1.9

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: fresh — price essentially flat vs cutoff ($47.81 → $49.13). You'd pay what smart money paid.

#28 EWBC East West Bancorp Inc T2 🔁 recurring

Priority 3.0

$114.07 → $127.09 (+11.4%)

Thesis: lilu sustained conviction @ 8.7% — held 4Q, still conviction

Holding Funds

lilu HOLD @ 8.7%

4Q Score Trajectory

4.5 → 3.2 → 2.9 → 2.4

First held: Q1 2025 • Held 4Q

Entry quality: small premium — price +11.4% above cutoff. Still actionable for high-conviction names, but edge is decaying.

📈 4-Quarter Trajectory

Multi-quarter score history per ticker. Shows how a signal got to where it is today — whether it's a fresh entry, a quietly building position, a recurring cult holding, or an unwinding thesis. Quarters analyzed: Q1 2025 → Q2 2025 → Q3 2025 → Q4 2025.

🆕 Fresh Entries — First Appeared This Quarter (31)

Ticker	Q4 2025	First Held	Qtrs	Funds (Q4)
SNDK	6.1	Q4 2025	1	aschenbrenner, sacerdote
FCX	5.6	Q4 2025	1	hariharan, harnisch
NAVN	4.8	Q4 2025	1	mehta
EWZ	3.4	Q4 2025	1	druckenmiller
FFIV	3.4	Q4 2025	1	resnick
CBRE	3.2	Q4 2025	1	kapadia
EWY	3.2	Q4 2025	1	tepper
TBBB	2.5	Q4 2025	1	druckenmiller, mehta
TTMI	2.4	Q4 2025	1	sacerdote
AAL	2.4	Q4 2025	1	tepper
AMPL	2.2	Q4 2025	1	kacher
MDLN	2.2	Q4 2025	1	mandel
CIFR	2.2	Q4 2025	1	aschenbrenner
RSP	2.2	Q4 2025	1	druckenmiller
CROX	1.9	Q4 2025	1	lilu
SITM	1.9	Q4 2025	1	sacerdote
NAMS	1.7	Q4 2025	1	druckenmiller
KRC	1.3	Q4 2025	1	aschenbrenner
SHOP	1.3	Q4 2025	1	gerstner
SPHR	1.1	Q4 2025	1	resnick
SEI	1.0	Q4 2025	1	aschenbrenner
TSEM	1.0	Q4 2025	1	aschenbrenner
NBP	1.0	Q4 2025	1	wang
MAZE	1.0	Q4 2025	1	wang
SLAB	0.7	Q4 2025	1	harnisch
DVN	0.7	Q4 2025	1	harnisch
CTRA	0.7	Q4 2025	1	harnisch
AR	0.7	Q4 2025	1	harnisch
CNK	0.7	Q4 2025	1	harnisch
GOSS	0.5	Q4 2025	1	wang
API	0.5	Q4 2025	1	wang

🔥 Accelerating — Score Jumped Sharply (7)

Ticker	Q1 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	First Held	Qtrs	Funds (Q4)
VEEV	2.2	4.8	3.6	Q1 2025	3	coleman, mehta
MTZ	0.0	2.2	2.5	Q3 2025	2	harnisch
CRH	0.0	3.2	1.6	Q3 2025	2	kapadia
QCOM	0.0	2.4	1.6	Q3 2025	2	tepper
ASHR	0.0	2.2	1.1	Q3 2025	2	hariharan
RIOT	0.0	1.0	1.0	Q3 2025	2	aschenbrenner
AMC	0.0	0.7	0.5	Q3 2025	2	harnisch

↗ Building — Steady Multi-Quarter Growth (12)

Ticker	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	First Held	Qtrs	Funds (Q4)
QQQ	3.4	0.0	4.5	9.8	Q1 2025	3	baker, gerstner, hariharan
MU	2.2	0.0	1.7	8.5	Q1 2025	3	baker, hariharan, tepper
BE	0.0	0.0	2.4	4.5	Q3 2025	2	aschenbrenner, sacerdote
COHR	5.6	2.7	0.0	3.4	Q1 2025	3	aschenbrenner, baker, druckenmiller, hariharan
CHYM	0.0	2.2	2.5	3.4	Q2 2025	3	kacher
XLF	0.0	3.6	0.0	3.4	Q2 2025	2	druckenmiller, hariharan
DASH	0.0	3.2	0.0	2.2	Q2 2025	2	kapadia, mandel
ASML	1.3	0.0	1.7	2.2	Q1 2025	3	kacher, mandel
ALAB	3.4	0.0	0.0	1.7	Q1 2025	2	baker
AMAT	2.2	1.6	0.0	1.7	Q1 2025	3	kapadia, laffont
MA	0.0	1.0	0.0	1.1	Q2 2025	2	buffett
FSLR	0.0	1.0	0.1	1.0	Q2 2025	3	harnisch

🔁 Recurring — Held 4+ Quarters (114)

Ticker	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	First Held	Qtrs	Funds (Q4)
META	24.5	13.1	15.2	21.8	Q1 2025	4	ackman, baker, coleman, gerstner, hariharan +8
NVDA	16.0	15.2	15.4	17.0	Q1 2025	4	aschenbrenner, baker, coleman, gerstner, hariharan +6
AMZN	18.6	15.9	13.4	16.6	Q1 2025	4	ackman, baker, coleman, druckenmiller, gerstner +9
GOOG	15.8	13.0	12.6	15.6	Q1 2025	4	ackman, hariharan, hohn, kapadia, lilu +1
GOOGL	18.5	13.7	16.9	14.2	Q1 2025	4	ackman, baker, buffett, coleman, druckenmiller +9
TSM	17.9	14.9	13.9	14.1	Q1 2025	4	aschenbrenner, coleman, druckenmiller, gerstner, hariharan +5
MSFT	17.6	17.9	13.4	14.1	Q1 2025	4	baker, coleman, druckenmiller, gerstner, hariharan +6
CVNA	22.4	16.6	12.3	13.8	Q1 2025	4	mandel, mehta, sacerdote, sosin, vinall
PDD	15.7	14.8	18.0	10.8	Q1 2025	4	coleman, gerstner, lilu, tepper, vinall +1
BN	4.5	3.8	8.0	8.9	Q1 2025	4	ackman, mandel
CPNG	12.6	7.2	5.6	8.8	Q1 2025	4	druckenmiller, gerstner, mehta
BAC	11.2	6.0	9.6	8.8	Q1 2025	4	buffett, lilu
AVGO	15.4	13.8	10.3	8.7	Q1 2025	4	aschenbrenner, coleman, gerstner, kacher, laffont +2
BABA	12.9	2.3	15.6	8.0	Q1 2025	4	gerstner, kacher, tepper, wang
APP	15.4	5.5	10.9	7.6	Q1 2025	4	coleman, laffont, mandel, resnick, sacerdote
RDDT	3.4	4.3	6.0	7.4	Q1 2025	4	coleman, kacher, kapadia, laffont
MCO	8.4	6.8	6.4	7.2	Q1 2025	4	buffett, hohn
CRWV	8.4	2.9	3.2	7.0	Q1 2025	4	aschenbrenner, baker, gerstner, laffont
UBER	16.8	9.9	9.9	6.9	Q1 2025	4	ackman, gerstner, resnick, tepper
GE	9.8	10.8	4.6	6.8	Q1 2025	4	hohn, kapadia
SPOT	8.4	6.4	7.0	6.5	Q1 2025	4	coleman, kapadia, laffont
V	7.3	6.0	6.2	6.2	Q1 2025	4	buffett, hohn
AAPL	12.9	8.2	6.2	6.0	Q1 2025	4	buffett, hariharan, lilu, tepper
SE	3.4	6.9	5.4	5.7	Q1 2025	4	coleman, druckenmiller, kacher, sacerdote, wang
WIX	4.5	2.9	3.8	5.3	Q1 2025	4	baker, vinall
MLB1	8.4	7.3	3.9	4.9	Q1 2025	4	druckenmiller, gerstner, hariharan, sacerdote
NU	4.5	0.6	3.4	4.8	Q1 2025	4	hariharan, laffont, mandel, sacerdote
TOST	7.0	4.2	3.8	4.7	Q1 2025	4	kapadia, mehta
LITE	2.2	1.1	0.2	4.6	Q1 2025	4	aschenbrenner, baker
HGV	4.5	3.8	3.2	4.5	Q1 2025	4	sosin
NFLX	5.6	6.9	2.4	3.9	Q1 2025	4	kacher, laffont, resnick, sacerdote
CACC	4.5	3.8	3.8	3.8	Q1 2025	4	vinall
KO	4.5	3.2	2.9	3.8	Q1 2025	4	buffett
IBKR	3.4	4.3	3.8	3.8	Q1 2025	4	vinall
QSR	4.5	3.8	6.1	3.8	Q1 2025	4	ackman, druckenmiller
AXP	4.5	3.2	3.8	3.8	Q1 2025	4	buffett
SPGI	4.5	3.8	3.2	3.8	Q1 2025	4	hohn
SNOW	5.6	2.8	5.0	3.8	Q1 2025	4	baker, gerstner, kacher, resnick
OXY	7.0	4.0	4.8	3.6	Q1 2025	4	buffett, lilu
COF	7.0	5.6	3.7	3.5	Q1 2025	4	mandel, sosin

↘ Unwinding — Score Declining (39)

Ticker	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	First Held	Qtrs	Funds (Q4)
MDB	2.2	0.0	4.6	2.2	Q1 2025	3	kacher, resnick, sacerdote
WHR	0.0	0.0	3.6	0.8	Q3 2025	2	tepper
FIG	0.0	0.0	8.2	0.8	Q3 2025	2	kapadia, mehta
XLV	0.0	0.0	1.7	0.6	Q3 2025	2	hariharan
BULL	0.0	4.5	3.2	0.2	Q2 2025	3	wang
LITE 0.5 12/15/26	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	Q3 2025	1	aschenbrenner
INDA	0.0	0.0	1.7	0.0	Q3 2025	1	hariharan
JD	7.0	2.3	1.6	0.0	Q1 2025	3	tepper, wang
IWM	0.0	0.0	4.5	0.0	Q3 2025	1	hariharan
TLN	2.2	0.0	1.1	0.0	Q1 2025	2	aschenbrenner, mandel
PI	0.0	0.0	1.9	0.0	Q3 2025	1	sacerdote
GDX	0.0	0.0	1.6	0.0	Q3 2025	1	aschenbrenner
DUOL	2.2	0.6	2.4	0.0	Q1 2025	3	sacerdote
VRSN	1.3	1.0	0.6	0.0	Q1 2025	3	buffett
DECK	2.2	0.0	1.3	0.0	Q1 2025	2	baker
ARM	1.3	6.7	3.8	0.0	Q1 2025	3	gerstner, hariharan, resnick
HPE	0.0	0.0	3.2	0.0	Q3 2025	1	resnick
CIFR 1.75 05/15/30	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	Q3 2025	1	aschenbrenner
ORCL	0.0	6.6	1.9	0.0	Q2 2025	2	laffont, resnick
INTU	3.4	0.8	3.2	0.0	Q1 2025	3	mandel, resnick
WBD	2.2	0.0	10.2	0.0	Q1 2025	2	harnisch, kapadia, resnick
CMG	3.4	2.9	2.9	0.0	Q1 2025	3	ackman
NTES	3.4	0.8	0.3	0.0	Q1 2025	3	wang
DKS	0.0	2.2	0.6	0.0	Q2 2025	2	baker
GLXY	0.0	0.0	1.6	0.0	Q3 2025	1	aschenbrenner
EEM	0.0	0.0	2.2	0.0	Q3 2025	1	druckenmiller
DDOG	0.0	0.0	2.2	0.0	Q3 2025	1	kacher
YMM	0.0	0.0	1.9	0.0	Q3 2025	1	wang
GLW	0.0	0.0	1.9	0.0	Q3 2025	1	sacerdote
SLV	0.0	3.6	0.2	0.0	Q2 2025	2	hariharan
BIDU	0.7	0.0	4.8	0.0	Q1 2025	2	wang
FIGR	0.0	0.0	1.3	0.0	Q3 2025	1	druckenmiller
STUB	0.0	0.0	1.3	0.0	Q3 2025	1	druckenmiller
FERG	0.0	0.0	2.4	0.0	Q3 2025	1	kapadia
4I1	7.0	0.6	2.5	0.0	Q1 2025	3	druckenmiller, mandel
ROKU	0.0	1.7	0.6	0.0	Q2 2025	2	druckenmiller
IBIT	0.0	0.0	3.4	0.0	Q3 2025	1	hariharan
HUBS	0.0	0.0	2.2	0.0	Q3 2025	1	baker
YPF	8.4	1.6	0.6	0.0	Q1 2025	3	druckenmiller, hariharan

↓ Decaying — Steep Multi-Quarter Drop (19)

Ticker	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	First Held	Qtrs	Funds (Q4)
P	0.0	3.4	2.0	1.3	Q2 2025	3	baker
BL	3.4	0.6	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	kacher
ENQ	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	Q2 2025	1	druckenmiller
ARRY	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	harnisch
LLY	5.6	1.6	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	coleman, druckenmiller
TSLA	0.0	5.1	0.0	0.0	Q2 2025	1	baker, hariharan
TWLO	3.4	1.1	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	resnick
UPST	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	Q2 2025	1	resnick
VIPS	2.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	wang
SMH	3.4	10.1	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	aschenbrenner, baker, hariharan
UNH	0.0	10.0	0.0	0.0	Q2 2025	1	mandel, tepper
CART	2.2	1.3	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	gerstner
LI	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	wang
SHLS	1.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	harnisch
GDS	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	Q2 2025	1	kacher
SOC	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	lilu
IOT	0.0	1.3	0.0	0.0	Q2 2025	1	gerstner
AKX	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	Q2 2025	1	resnick
QRVO	2.2	1.1	0.0	0.0	Q1 2025	2	resnick

🎯 Sector Momentum

Predictive signal: how many smart-money funds own at least one name in each sector, quarter by quarter. A sector transitioning from 5 → 8 → 12 funds over 3 quarters is accelerating — expect further accumulation next quarter.

Sector	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Growth Rate	Classification	New Tickers Q4
Semiconductors	4	3	5	8	+26.0%	🔥 ACCELERATING	SNDK, TSEM
Other	21	22	22	22	+1.6%	→ STABLE	AAL, AMPL, API, AR +6
AI Infra	10	11	11	12	+6.3%	↗ BUILDING	CIFR
Energy	2	3	3	3	+14.5%	↗ BUILDING	SEI
Tech	18	19	19	19	+1.8%	→ STABLE
International	5	6	6	5	+0.0%	→ STABLE	SHOP
Power/Nuclear	5	4	5	5	+0.0%	→ STABLE
Consumer	1	1	1	0	+0.0%	→ STABLE
Industrials	2	3	2	2	+0.0%	→ STABLE
Real Estate	0	0	0	1	+0.0%	🆕 NEW	KRC
Financials	4	3	3	3	-9.1%	↓ FADING
Healthcare	5	6	3	3	-15.7%	↘ COOLING

🔄 Price Action Validation

For each signal, tracks price behavior AFTER the 13F cutoff date (Dec 31, 2025) through today. A signal is validated by the tape when the stock bottoms then rebounds 10%+ — confirming smart-money entry. A signal is broken when the drop continues or deepens.

🔄 REBOUNDING — Smart Money Entry Validated by Tape (2)

Stock dropped after cutoff but has rallied 10%+ off the low. The tape is confirming what the 13F suggested — smart money got the entry, you're seeing momentum catch up.

Ticker	Cutoff Price	Trough	Current	Cutoff → Now	Rally Off Low	Trough Date
APP	$618.32	$381.20	$483.71	-21.8%	+26.9%	2026-03-23
MSFT	$471.86	$356.77	$432.92	-8.2%	+21.3%	2026-03-23

→ DRIFTING — No Strong Directional Move (6)

Price has moved less than 8% either direction since cutoff. Signal is neither validated nor invalidated by the tape yet.

Ticker	Cutoff Price	Trough	Current	Cutoff → Now	Rally Off Low	Trough Date
CVNA	$400.25	$281.28	$416.79	+4.1%	+48.2%	2026-03-16
META	$649.85	$525.72	$674.72	+3.8%	+31.0%	2026-03-23
AMZN	$226.50	$198.79	$255.36	+12.7%	+28.5%	2026-02-09
GOOGL	$314.93	$274.34	$339.32	+7.8%	+24.6%	2026-03-23
GOOG	$315.10	$273.76	$337.73	+7.2%	+24.0%	2026-03-23
NVDA	$188.84	$167.52	$202.50	+7.2%	+20.9%	2026-03-23

🚀 CHASING — Rally Already Happened (6)

Stock has already rallied 15%+ since the 13F cutoff. The edge from smart money's entry is gone — you'd be buying late.

Ticker	Cutoff Price	Trough	Current	Cutoff → Now	Rally Off Low	Trough Date
SNDK	$275.24	$275.24	$979.07	+255.7%	+255.7%	2025-12-29
TSEM	$121.74	$110.59	$206.10	+69.3%	+104.8%	2026-03-02
CIFR	$16.20	$12.82	$19.44	+20.0%	+51.6%	2026-03-30
AVGO	$346.89	$300.05	$422.65	+21.8%	+40.9%	2026-03-23
SEI	$50.14	$48.84	$66.17	+32.0%	+35.5%	2026-03-02
TSM	$318.71	$318.71	$387.44	+21.6%	+21.6%	2025-12-29

💰 Price & Valuation — Post-13F Context

13F filings disclose holdings but not purchase prices. By the time they're public (45 days after quarter-end), the stocks may have moved significantly from where the smart money bought them. This tab tells you how much of the edge has been consumed before you place your order, plus a standalone valuation snapshot for each signal.

Price Edge Distribution

🟢 Intact (5%)

🟡 Decaying (16%)

🔴 Stale (32%)

⚫ Below Cutoff (45%)

⚪ No Data

Per-Signal Price & Valuation

Cutoff price = close on last trading day of Q4 2025. Current price = most recent close. Each signal sorted by composite score descending.

Ticker	Company	Tier	Score	Cutoff $	Current $	% Chg	vs SPY	Edge	52w Range	P/E	Fwd P/E	EV/EBITDA	FCF Yield
META	Meta Platforms Inc	Consensus	6.18	$665.95	$613.13	-7.9%	-13.4pp	⚫ below	33.7%	22.3	16.9	14.2	1.61%
GOOG	Alphabet Inc	Consensus	4.66	$314.55	$381.87	+21.4%	+15.9pp	🔴 stale	99.7%	29.2	28.2	27.6	0.82%
CVNA	Carvana Co	Consensus	4.02	$429.55	$391.62	-8.8%	-14.3pp	⚫ below	59.6%	45.4	36.9	27.9	0.29%
PDD	Pdd Holdings Inc	Consensus	3.96	$113.83	$99.0	-13.0%	-18.5pp	⚫ below	8.5%	10.3	7.0	1.6	60.77%
NVDA	Nvidia Corporation	Consensus	3.91	$187.54	$199.94	+6.6%	+1.1pp	🟡 decaying	84.1%	40.7	17.8	36.0	1.2%
BN	Brookfield Corp	Cross-Domain	3.82	$46.29	$45.53	-1.6%	-7.2pp	🟢 intact	70.3%	92.9	7.8	15.5	-4.54%
AMZN	Amazon Com Inc	Consensus	3.68	$232.53	$272.82	+17.3%	+11.8pp	🔴 stale	98.8%	32.7	27.8	19.8	0.81%
BABA	Alibaba Group Hldg Ltd	Cross-Domain	3.6	$147.36	$132.34	-10.2%	-15.7pp	⚫ below	32.2%	23.4	17.8	17.8	-8.0%
BAC	Bank America Corp	Cross-Domain	3.6	$55.28	$53.86	-2.6%	-8.1pp	⚫ below	78.3%	13.4	10.7	—	—
MSFT	Microsoft Corp	Consensus	3.53	$487.48	$412.49	-15.4%	-20.9pp	⚫ below	28.2%	24.6	21.4	16.7	1.21%
MU	Micron Technology Inc	Consensus	3.35	$292.63	$544.74	+86.2%	+80.7pp	🔴 stale	99.7%	25.7	5.4	15.7	0.47%
CPNG	Coupang Inc	Consensus	3.25	$24.13	$20.34	-15.7%	-21.2pp	⚫ below	20.7%	184.9	34.8	34.3	2.3%
MCO	Moodys Corp	Cross-Domain	3.12	$515.75	$462.04	-10.4%	-15.9pp	⚫ below	41.3%	33.1	24.9	22.7	2.81%
GOOGL	Alphabet Inc	Consensus	3.05	$313.85	$385.44	+22.8%	+17.3pp	🔴 stale	99.6%	29.4	28.5	27.8	0.82%
UBER	Uber Technologies Inc	Cross-Domain	3.03	$82.12	$74.87	-8.8%	-14.3pp	⚫ below	19.1%	15.8	17.4	25.2	4.12%
GE	Ge Aerospace	Cross-Domain	3.0	$311.79	$291.02	-6.7%	-12.2pp	⚫ below	59.8%	36.1	33.5	28.4	1.86%
NAVN	Navan Inc	Solo Expert	2.4	$17.39	$17.86	+2.7%	-2.8pp	🟢 intact	66.6%	—	80.8	-26.6	3.19%
BE	Bloom Energy Corp	Solo Expert	2.24	$87.26	$280.52	+221.5%	+216.0pp	🔴 stale	94.3%	—	67.9	350.1	0.33%
HGV	Hilton Grand Vacations	Solo Expert	2.24	$45.24	$47.62	+5.3%	-0.2pp	🟡 decaying	70.8%	25.7	9.7	12.2	5.73%
QSR	Restaurant Brands Intl Inc	Solo Expert	1.92	$68.75	$80.84	+17.6%	+12.1pp	🔴 stale	95.9%	30.7	18.3	15.7	3.77%
AXP	American Express Co	Solo Expert	1.92	$373.39	$322.77	-13.6%	-19.1pp	⚫ below	43.4%	20.1	16.1	—	—
KO	Coca Cola Co	Solo Expert	1.92	$70.07	$79.45	+13.4%	+7.9pp	🟡 decaying	84.7%	25.0	22.9	22.2	0.93%
SPGI	S&P Global Inc	Solo Expert	1.92	$527.69	$429.56	-18.6%	-24.1pp	⚫ below	24.3%	27.1	19.4	18.4	4.17%
CACC	Credit Accep Corp Mich	Solo Expert	1.92	$450.33	$506.41	+12.4%	+7.0pp	🟡 decaying	70.7%	13.9	9.8	—	—
IBKR	Interactive Brokers Group In	Solo Expert	1.92	$65.0	$79.96	+23.0%	+17.5pp	🔴 stale	92.5%	34.5	28.0	—	—
VEEV	Veeva Sys Inc	Solo Expert	1.8	$224.64	$171.58	-23.6%	-29.1pp	⚫ below	14.5%	31.5	17.4	19.3	3.72%
EWZ	Ishares Inc	Solo Expert	1.68	$31.99	$39.49	+23.4%	+17.9pp	🔴 stale	83.9%	13.1	—	—	—
CHYM	Chime Finl Inc	Solo Expert	1.68	$26.33	$22.46	-14.7%	-20.2pp	⚫ below	21.9%	—	19.5	-12.5	6.55%
FFIV	F5 Inc	Solo Expert	1.68	$259.37	$321.51	+24.0%	+18.5pp	🔴 stale	80.0%	26.4	18.4	18.4	3.74%
ONC	Beone Medicines Ltd	Solo Expert	1.6	$304.72	$297.09	-2.5%	-8.0pp	⚫ below	47.2%	119.8	31.2	729.8	2.2%
TKO	Tko Group Holdings Inc	Solo Expert	1.6	$214.17	$186.68	-12.8%	-18.3pp	⚫ below	46.1%	83.0	47.0	16.9	5.43%
CBRE	Cbre Group Inc	Solo Expert	1.6	$163.31	$143.2	-12.3%	-17.8pp	⚫ below	44.0%	32.7	16.2	23.1	2.61%
BRK/B	Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del	Solo Expert	1.6	⚠️ price data unavailable: Failed to parse json response from Yahoo Finance: {'code': 'Not Found', 'description': 'HTTP 404 Not Found'}
TTWO	Take-Two Interactive Softwar	Solo Expert	1.44	$257.91	$212.38	-17.6%	-23.1pp	⚫ below	32.1%	—	27.0	49.5	3.78%
HHH	Howard Hughes Holdings Inc	Solo Expert	1.44	$80.16	$62.48	-22.1%	-27.6pp	⚫ below	4.9%	28.3	61.3	14.6	12.74%
HLT	Hilton Worldwide Hldgs Inc	Solo Expert	1.44	$290.43	$324.03	+11.6%	+6.1pp	🟡 decaying	81.1%	49.5	31.1	28.7	2.28%
CP	Canadian Pacific Kansas City	Solo Expert	1.44	$74.29	$86.9	+17.0%	+11.5pp	🔴 stale	88.0%	26.5	20.2	12.8	2.43%
TTAN	Servicetitan Inc	Solo Expert	1.44	$107.18	$59.64	-44.4%	-49.9pp	⚫ below	5.8%	—	37.1	-55.6	2.69%
HTHT	H World Group Ltd	Solo Expert	1.44	$46.98	$51.58	+9.8%	+4.3pp	🟡 decaying	80.7%	22.0	16.6	22.2	39.26%
APLD	Applied Digital Corp	Solo Expert	1.26	$24.08	$34.63	+43.8%	+38.3pp	🔴 stale	79.5%	—	-34.1	853.7	-15.13%
U	Unity Software Inc	Solo Expert	1.26	$45.13	$27.12	-39.9%	-45.4pp	⚫ below	29.2%	—	21.3	-1146.3	4.65%
MTZ	Mastec Inc	Solo Expert	1.26	$220.33	$407.75	+85.1%	+79.6pp	🔴 stale	97.5%	80.3	37.3	—	0.38%
SHW	Sherwin Williams Co	Solo Expert	1.2	$326.16	$322.39	-1.2%	-6.7pp	🟢 intact	26.7%	30.9	24.3	20.5	2.69%
EWBC	East West Bancorp Inc	Solo Expert	1.2	$114.07	$127.09	+11.4%	+5.9pp	🟡 decaying	99.0%	12.7	11.2	—	—
RSP	Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T	Solo Expert	1.12	$193.21	$203.85	+5.5%	+0.0pp	🟡 decaying	96.1%	23.2	—	—	—
INTC	Intel Corp	Solo Expert	1.12	$37.3	$99.28	+166.2%	+160.7pp	🔴 stale	99.8%	—	67.1	35.3	-1.66%
PWR	Quanta Scvs Inc	Solo Expert	1.12	$428.81	$719.31	+67.8%	+62.2pp	🔴 stale	96.3%	98.8	45.9	43.9	—
DY	Dycom Inds Inc	Solo Expert	1.12	$342.66	$422.4	+23.3%	+17.8pp	🔴 stale	91.4%	44.1	24.6	20.6	2.18%
CORZ	Core Scientific Inc New	Solo Expert	1.01	$14.61	$20.77	+42.2%	+36.7pp	🔴 stale	81.2%	—	49.5	-66.7	-8.23%
IREN	Iren Limited	Solo Expert	1.01	$38.3	$46.77	+22.1%	+16.6pp	🔴 stale	57.5%	32.5	37.0	80.8	-8.05%
LYV	Live Nation Entertainment In	Solo Expert	1.01	$144.09	$157.72	+9.5%	+4.0pp	🟡 decaying	64.9%	—	70.8	21.2	2.99%
FWONK	Liberty Media Corp Del	Solo Expert	1.01	$98.21	$88.56	-9.8%	-15.3pp	⚫ below	28.8%	38.3	42.2	26.4	2.99%
YUMC	Yum China Hldgs Inc	Solo Expert	0.96	$47.81	$49.13	+2.8%	-2.7pp	🟢 intact	44.6%	19.6	15.1	10.0	7.04%
GEV	Ge Vernova Inc	Solo Expert	0.84	$659.64	$1078.41	+63.5%	+58.0pp	🔴 stale	87.0%	31.5	44.0	83.8	3.21%
BILL	Bill Holdings Inc	Solo Expert	0.84	$55.14	$37.98	-31.1%	-36.6pp	⚫ below	15.5%	—	14.0	-1505.8	3.26%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices Inc	Solo Expert	0.84	$215.34	$353.88	+64.3%	+58.8pp	🔴 stale	98.3%	135.1	31.9	84.7	0.79%
LEGN	Legend Biotech Corp	Solo Expert	0.8	$21.53	$23.21	+7.8%	+2.3pp	🟡 decaying	24.0%	—	20.2	-64.2	-3.12%
PCOR	Procore Technologies Inc	Solo Expert	0.8	$73.77	$58.06	-21.3%	-26.8pp	⚫ below	33.1%	—	25.8	-1085.3	2.74%
UNP	Union Pac Corp	Solo Expert	0.8	$233.06	$267.99	+15.0%	+9.5pp	🟡 decaying	89.4%	22.1	19.6	15.1	2.54%
RBLX	Roblox Corp	Solo Expert	0.8	$81.81	$45.52	-44.4%	-49.9pp	⚫ below	3.5%	—	-34.5	-36.6	4.01%
SMTC	Semtech Corp	Solo Expert	0.8	$75.16	$104.68	+39.3%	+33.8pp	🔴 stale	89.6%	—	36.0	61.9	1.5%
FN	Fabrinet	Solo Expert	0.8	$461.93	$700.55	+51.7%	+46.2pp	🔴 stale	93.7%	67.0	42.0	54.1	-0.09%
P	Pure Storage Inc	Solo Expert	0.67	$67.79	$71.95	+6.1%	+0.6pp	🟡 decaying	47.2%	130.8	25.3	88.7	1.58%
FUTU	Futu Hldgs Ltd	Solo Expert	0.6	$165.27	$154.3	-6.6%	-12.1pp	⚫ below	54.6%	15.1	11.0	—	—
CLS	Celestica Inc	Solo Expert	0.6	$299.4	$415.19	+38.7%	+33.2pp	🔴 stale	97.6%	50.4	27.6	34.5	1.36%
WWD	Woodward Inc	Solo Expert	0.56	$303.1	$364.49	+20.2%	+14.8pp	🔴 stale	80.4%	43.7	35.0	30.8	0.91%
ETN	Eaton Corp Plc	Solo Expert	0.56	$320.86	$427.7	+33.3%	+27.8pp	🔴 stale	94.8%	41.0	27.6	28.2	1.57%
DOCU	Docusign Inc	Solo Expert	0.56	$69.08	$46.88	-32.1%	-37.6pp	⚫ below	12.3%	31.7	9.3	24.4	13.18%
ASHR	Dbx Etf Tr	Solo Expert	0.56	$32.96	$35.59	+8.0%	+2.5pp	🟡 decaying	99.8%	17.5	—	—	—
TRU	Transunion	Solo Expert	0.4	$86.99	$71.41	-17.9%	-23.4pp	⚫ below	18.1%	19.8	12.8	13.0	5.45%
FIG	Figma Inc	Solo Expert	0.4	$37.63	$18.76	-50.1%	-55.6pp	⚫ below	1.7%	—	65.5	-6.0	7.59%

How to Read the Price Edge Bands

Band	Meaning	What to do
🟢 Intact (±5% of cutoff)	Stock hasn't moved much since 13F cutoff. You can still buy near smart money's avg cost.	Full-size position if other criteria check out.
🟡 Decaying (+5% to +15%)	Some edge consumed but most of the alpha remains if thesis is multi-year.	2/3 size. Check if signal is already crowded.
🔴 Stale (+15% or more)	The post-13F rally captured most of the edge. Late to the party.	1/3 size or skip. Wait for a pullback.
⚫ Below cutoff (negative)	Stock has fallen since smart money bought. Potentially BETTER entry than them.	Aggressive buy if fundamentals haven't broken — but verify the thesis isn't broken first.

Valuation Interpretation Quick Reference

Metric	Typical Range	What "cheap" looks like
P/E (trailing)	15-25 S&P avg	<15 cheap · 15-25 normal · >30 pricey · Missing = unprofitable
Forward P/E	12-22 S&P avg	Better signal than trailing because it uses next-year earnings estimates
EV/EBITDA	10-15 S&P avg	<10 cheap · Negative = not profitable at EBITDA level (red flag for capex-heavy names)
FCF Yield	3-6% mature cos	>6% cheap · <2% growth premium · Negative = burning cash
52w Range Position	0% = at 52w low · 100% = at 52w high	<30% = washed out · 30-70% = middle · >70% = near highs

Important caveat: price context is a timing filter, not a signal itself. A high-conviction signal that's 🔴 stale is still worth watching — the thesis may extend for years. Conversely, an ⚫ below-cutoff signal needs careful due diligence: smart money got the falling knife, not you. Always combine Price Edge with signal score, entry quality, and Q/Q changes.

💎 Hidden Value / Suppressed Signals

When 6+ funds hold the same stock, the cult penalty (0.5x or 0.75x) suppresses its signal score below the 3.0 emission threshold — because "everyone already owns it" isn't alpha. But if that crowded name has since fallen significantly, the setup changes. It becomes "17 funds own it AND the crowd hasn't bought the dip yet" — a genuinely contrarian entry on a name with deep smart-money conviction.

A name qualifies as 💎 Hidden Value when ALL of these are true:

Raw score ≥ 4.0 — pre-penalty holdings conviction was strong
Cult penalty < 1.0 — 6+ funds hold it (was penalized)
Final score < 3.0 — was actually suppressed below emission threshold
Price fell ≥ 8% since 13F cutoff — the decay has made the entry attractive

Sorted by rescue attractiveness = raw_score × |price_drop_pct| / 10. Higher = stronger holdings-conviction combined with bigger price drop.

No suppressed signals this quarter. Every cult-penalized name is either trading above cutoff (edge consumed) or didn't meet the ≥4.0 raw-score bar. The crowded trades stayed crowded. Scanned 172 unique tickers across the full 20-fund universe.

Tier 1: Consensus Signals (3+ Funds Converging)

Click any row to expand fund-level detail, score breakdown, and exit warnings.

Ticker	Company	Score	# Funds	Style Mix	Action	Entry	Sector	Adjustments
META	Meta Platforms Inc	6.18	8	4 styles (Strong)	BUY	CHASING	Tech	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 0.75x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 4.80 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 0.75x = 6.18 Style Diversity 4 distinct styles across 8 funds Sector Tech ⚠️ Exiting Funds Duquesne Family Office, Lone Pine Capital 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $665.95 → $613.13 (-7.9%, -13.4pp vs SPY) — -7.9% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 22.3 · Fwd P/E 16.9 · EV/EBITDA 14.2 · FCF yield 1.61% · 34% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Appaloosa LP: ADD_BIG @ 5.7% (contrib 2.25)Tiger Global Management: HOLD @ 6.1% (contrib 1.80)Pershing Square Capital: NEW @ 11.4% (contrib 4.80)Coatue Management: HOLD @ 6.2% (contrib 1.05)Altimeter Capital: HOLD @ 18.3% (contrib 1.40)RV Capital: HOLD @ 20.9% (contrib 2.40)Whale Rock Capital Management: TRIM @ 4.0% (contrib 0.50)Jericho Capital Asset Management: TRIM @ 3.0% (contrib 0.35)
GOOG	Alphabet Inc	4.66	5	4 styles (Strong)	BUY	CHASING	Tech	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 1.0x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 4.66 Style Diversity 4 distinct styles across 5 funds Sector Tech 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $314.55 → $381.87 (+21.4%, +15.9pp vs SPY) — +21.4% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 29.2 · Fwd P/E 28.2 · EV/EBITDA 27.6 · FCF yield 0.82% · 100% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Appaloosa LP: ADD @ 8.1% (contrib 1.80)Pershing Square Capital: HOLD @ 12.5% (contrib 2.40)TCI Fund Management: HOLD @ 4.4% (contrib 1.20)Himalaya Capital Management LLC: HOLD @ 22.3% (contrib 2.00)NWI Management LP: HOLD @ 1.6% (contrib 0.42)
CVNA	Carvana Co	4.02	5	4 styles (Strong)	BUY	SMALL PREMIUM	Other	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 1.0x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.25 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 4.02 Style Diversity 4 distinct styles across 5 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $429.55 → $391.62 (-8.8%, -14.3pp vs SPY) — -8.8% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 45.4 · Fwd P/E 36.9 · EV/EBITDA 27.9 · FCF yield 0.29% · 60% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Lone Pine Capital: HOLD @ 5.5% (contrib 1.05)CAS Investment Partners: HOLD @ 83.2% (contrib 1.40)Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC: TRIM @ 60.0% (contrib 1.00)RV Capital: TRIM @ 29.8% (contrib 1.20)Whale Rock Capital Management: ADD_BIG @ 5.8% (contrib 2.25)
PDD	Pdd Holdings Inc	3.96	3	3 styles (Moderate)	SMALL_BUY	CHASING	Other	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 1.0x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 3.96 Style Diversity 3 distinct styles across 3 funds Sector Other ⚠️ Exiting Funds Altimeter Capital, RV Capital 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $113.83 → $99.0 (-13.0%, -18.5pp vs SPY) — -13.0% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 10.3 · Fwd P/E 7.0 · EV/EBITDA 1.6 · FCF yield 60.77% · 8% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Appaloosa LP: HOLD @ 2.9% (contrib 1.00)Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors): ADD @ 39.2% (contrib 2.40)Himalaya Capital Management LLC: HOLD @ 14.6% (contrib 2.00)
NVDA	Nvidia Corporation	3.91	8	3 styles (Strong)	SMALL_BUY	SMALL PREMIUM	Other	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 0.75x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.10 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 0.75x = 3.91 Style Diversity 3 distinct styles across 8 funds Sector Other ⚠️ Exiting Funds Situational Awareness LP 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $187.54 → $199.94 (+6.6%, +1.1pp vs SPY) — +6.6% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 40.7 · Fwd P/E 17.8 · EV/EBITDA 36.0 · FCF yield 1.2% · 84% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Appaloosa LP: HOLD @ 4.6% (contrib 1.00)Tiger Global Management: HOLD @ 6.9% (contrib 1.80)Coatue Management: HOLD @ 4.3% (contrib 0.70)Light Street Capital Management: ADD @ 9.8% (contrib 1.26)Altimeter Capital: HOLD @ 22.7% (contrib 1.40)XN LP: HOLD @ 3.1% (contrib 1.00)Atreides Management: ADD_BIG @ 12.4% (contrib 2.10)Jericho Capital Asset Management: ADD_BIG @ 10.8% (contrib 2.10)
AMZN	Amazon Com Inc	3.68	14	9 styles (Strong)	SMALL_BUY	CHASING	Tech	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 0.5x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 3.60 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 0.5x = 3.68 Style Diversity 9 distinct styles across 14 funds Sector Tech 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $232.53 → $272.82 (+17.3%, +11.8pp vs SPY) — +17.3% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 32.7 · Fwd P/E 27.8 · EV/EBITDA 19.8 · FCF yield 0.81% · 99% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Duquesne Family Office: ADD_BIG @ 4.3% (contrib 1.05)Appaloosa LP: HOLD @ 7.3% (contrib 1.50)Tiger Global Management: HOLD @ 7.8% (contrib 1.80)Pershing Square Capital: ADD_BIG @ 14.3% (contrib 3.60)Coatue Management: HOLD @ 5.7% (contrib 1.05)Light Street Capital Management: ADD @ 2.5% (contrib 0.84)Lone Pine Capital: HOLD @ 4.1% (contrib 0.70)Altimeter Capital: HOLD @ 7.7% (contrib 1.05)XN LP: TRIM @ 3.8% (contrib 0.50)Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC: TRIM_BIG @ 0.3% (contrib 0.06)Whale Rock Capital Management: ADD @ 5.5% (contrib 1.80)Atreides Management: HOLD @ 1.9% (contrib 0.42)Peconic Partners LLC: ADD_BIG @ 1.7% (contrib 0.63)NWI Management LP: ADD_BIG @ 6.0% (contrib 1.57)
MSFT	Microsoft Corp	3.53	8	6 styles (Strong)	REDUCE	STALE	Tech	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 0.75x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 0.75x = 3.53 Style Diversity 6 distinct styles across 8 funds Sector Tech ⚠️ Exiting Funds Whale Rock Capital Management 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $487.48 → $412.49 (-15.4%, -20.9pp vs SPY) — -15.4% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 24.6 · Fwd P/E 21.4 · EV/EBITDA 16.7 · FCF yield 1.21% · 28% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Appaloosa LP: HOLD @ 3.5% (contrib 1.00)Tiger Global Management: TRIM @ 8.9% (contrib 0.90)Coatue Management: HOLD @ 6.3% (contrib 1.05)Lone Pine Capital: HOLD @ 4.4% (contrib 0.70)TCI Fund Management: HOLD @ 15.1% (contrib 2.40)Altimeter Capital: HOLD @ 9.3% (contrib 1.05)RV Capital: HOLD @ 1.3% (contrib 0.72)NWI Management LP: ADD_BIG @ 7.3% (contrib 1.57)
MU	Micron Technology Inc	3.35	3	3 styles (Moderate)	SMALL_BUY	CHASING	Semiconductors	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 1.0x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.25 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 3.35 Style Diversity 3 distinct styles across 3 funds Sector Semiconductors 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $292.63 → $544.74 (+86.2%, +80.7pp vs SPY) — +86.2% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 25.7 · Fwd P/E 5.4 · EV/EBITDA 15.7 · FCF yield 0.47% · 100% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Appaloosa LP: ADD_BIG @ 7.2% (contrib 2.25)Atreides Management: ADD_BIG @ 5.0% (contrib 1.57)NWI Management LP: HOLD @ 1.9% (contrib 0.42)
CPNG	Coupang Inc	3.25	3	3 styles (Moderate)	SMALL_BUY	STALE	Other	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 1.0x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.00 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 3.25 Style Diversity 3 distinct styles across 3 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $24.13 → $20.34 (-15.7%, -21.2pp vs SPY) — -15.7% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 184.9 · Fwd P/E 34.8 · EV/EBITDA 34.3 · FCF yield 2.3% · 21% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Duquesne Family Office: ADD @ 3.5% (contrib 0.84)Altimeter Capital: ADD_BIG @ 5.5% (contrib 1.57)Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC: HOLD @ 12.2% (contrib 2.00)
GOOGL	Alphabet Inc	3.05	13	7 styles (Strong)	SMALL_BUY	CHASING	Tech	Haircut 1.0x, Cult 0.5x
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 0.5x = 3.05 Style Diversity 7 distinct styles across 13 funds Sector Tech 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $313.85 → $385.44 (+22.8%, +17.3pp vs SPY) — +22.8% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 29.4 · Fwd P/E 28.5 · EV/EBITDA 27.8 · FCF yield 0.82% · 100% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Duquesne Family Office: ADD_BIG @ 2.7% (contrib 1.05)Tiger Global Management: HOLD @ 11.2% (contrib 2.40)Pershing Square Capital: TRIM_BIG @ 1.4% (contrib 0.14)Coatue Management: HOLD @ 5.4% (contrib 1.05)Light Street Capital Management: HOLD @ 6.5% (contrib 1.05)Berkshire Hathaway: HOLD @ 2.0% (contrib 1.20)Altimeter Capital: ADD_BIG @ 2.4% (contrib 1.05)RV Capital: HOLD @ 2.4% (contrib 1.20)Whale Rock Capital Management: ADD_BIG @ 8.4% (contrib 2.25)Atreides Management: HOLD @ 2.0% (contrib 0.42)Jericho Capital Asset Management: TRIM_BIG @ 4.8% (contrib 0.14)Peconic Partners LLC: HOLD @ 0.0% (contrib 0.21)Himalaya Capital Management LLC: HOLD @ 21.6% (contrib 2.00)

Tier 2: Solo-Expert Contrarian Signals

One fund alone, operating in their edge domain. High-conviction contrarian calls.

Ticker	Company	Score	Fund	Edge Domain	Action	Entry	Position %
NAVN	Navan Inc	2.40	Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC	Long-term tech crossover (private + public)	WATCHLIST	RIDING	9.2%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 3.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 2.40 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟢 $17.39 → $17.86 (+2.7%, -2.8pp vs SPY) — +2.7% vs cutoff — signal intact, still a fresh entry 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 80.8 · EV/EBITDA -26.6 · FCF yield 3.19% · 67% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC: NEW @ 9.2% (contrib 3.00)
BE	Bloom Energy Corp	2.24	Situational Awareness LP	AI compute + power infrastructure	WATCHLIST	CHASING	16.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.80 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 2.24 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Power/Nuclear 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $87.26 → $280.52 (+221.5%, +216.0pp vs SPY) — +221.5% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 67.9 · EV/EBITDA 350.1 · FCF yield 0.33% · 94% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Situational Awareness LP: NEW @ 16.5% (contrib 2.80)
HGV	Hilton Grand Vacations	2.24	CAS Investment Partners	Ultra-concentrated deep value	WATCHLIST	SMALL PREMIUM	10.2%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.80 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 2.24 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other ⚠️ Exiting Funds CAS Investment Partners 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $45.24 → $47.62 (+5.3%, -0.2pp vs SPY) — +5.3% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 25.7 · Fwd P/E 9.7 · EV/EBITDA 12.2 · FCF yield 5.73% · 71% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) CAS Investment Partners: NEW @ 10.2% (contrib 2.80)
QSR	Restaurant Brands Intl Inc	1.92	Pershing Square Capital	Activist value	REDUCE	CHASING	10.1%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.92 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $68.75 → $80.84 (+17.6%, +12.1pp vs SPY) — +17.6% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 30.7 · Fwd P/E 18.3 · EV/EBITDA 15.7 · FCF yield 3.77% · 96% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Pershing Square Capital: HOLD @ 10.1% (contrib 2.40)
AXP	American Express Co	1.92	Berkshire Hathaway	Permanent capital	REDUCE	CHASING	20.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.92 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Financials 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $373.39 → $322.77 (-13.6%, -19.1pp vs SPY) — -13.6% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 20.1 · Fwd P/E 16.1 · 43% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Berkshire Hathaway: HOLD @ 20.5% (contrib 2.40)
KO	Coca Cola Co	1.92	Berkshire Hathaway	Permanent capital	REDUCE	SMALL PREMIUM	10.2%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.92 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $70.07 → $79.45 (+13.4%, +7.9pp vs SPY) — +13.4% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 25.0 · Fwd P/E 22.9 · EV/EBITDA 22.2 · FCF yield 0.93% · 85% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Berkshire Hathaway: HOLD @ 10.2% (contrib 2.40)
SPGI	S&P Global Inc	1.92	TCI Fund Management	Long-term activist value	REDUCE	STALE	11.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.92 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $527.69 → $429.56 (-18.6%, -24.1pp vs SPY) — -18.6% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 27.1 · Fwd P/E 19.4 · EV/EBITDA 18.4 · FCF yield 4.17% · 24% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) TCI Fund Management: HOLD @ 11.5% (contrib 2.40)
CACC	Credit Accep Corp Mich	1.92	RV Capital	German value + global quality	REDUCE	SMALL PREMIUM	13.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.92 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $450.33 → $506.41 (+12.4%, +7.0pp vs SPY) — +12.5% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 13.9 · Fwd P/E 9.8 · 71% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) RV Capital: HOLD @ 13.5% (contrib 2.40)
IBKR	Interactive Brokers Group In	1.92	RV Capital	German value + global quality	REDUCE	CHASING	11.3%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.92 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $65.0 → $79.96 (+23.0%, +17.5pp vs SPY) — +23.0% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 34.5 · Fwd P/E 28.0 · 92% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) RV Capital: HOLD @ 11.3% (contrib 2.40)
VEEV	Veeva Sys Inc	1.80	Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC	Long-term tech crossover (private + public)	WATCHLIST	STALE	5.2%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.25 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.80 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $224.64 → $171.58 (-23.6%, -29.1pp vs SPY) — -23.6% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 31.5 · Fwd P/E 17.4 · EV/EBITDA 19.3 · FCF yield 3.72% · 14% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC: ADD_BIG @ 5.2% (contrib 2.25)
EWZ	Ishares Inc	1.68	Duquesne Family Office	Macro + secular tech	WATCHLIST	CHASING	5.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.10 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.68 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $31.99 → $39.49 (+23.4%, +17.9pp vs SPY) — +23.4% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 13.1 · 84% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Duquesne Family Office: NEW @ 5.5% (contrib 2.10)
CHYM	Chime Finl Inc	1.68	Light Street Capital Management	Tiger Cub TMT	WATCHLIST	RIDING	10.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.10 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.68 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $26.33 → $22.46 (-14.7%, -20.2pp vs SPY) — -14.7% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 19.5 · EV/EBITDA -12.5 · FCF yield 6.55% · 22% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Light Street Capital Management: ADD_BIG @ 10.5% (contrib 2.10)
FFIV	F5 Inc	1.68	Jericho Capital Asset Management	TMT long/short	WATCHLIST	CHASING	6.6%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.10 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.68 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $259.37 → $321.51 (+24.0%, +18.5pp vs SPY) — +24.0% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 26.4 · Fwd P/E 18.4 · EV/EBITDA 18.4 · FCF yield 3.74% · 80% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Jericho Capital Asset Management: NEW @ 6.6% (contrib 2.10)
ONC	Beone Medicines Ltd	1.60	Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors)	Asia + global consumer/tech	REDUCE	CHASING	10.1%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.60 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $304.72 → $297.09 (-2.5%, -8.0pp vs SPY) — -2.5% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 119.8 · Fwd P/E 31.2 · EV/EBITDA 729.8 · FCF yield 2.2% · 47% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors): HOLD @ 10.1% (contrib 2.00)
TKO	Tko Group Holdings Inc	1.60	XN LP	Railroads, tech/internet concentrated specialist	REDUCE	CHASING	16.8%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.60 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $214.17 → $186.68 (-12.8%, -18.3pp vs SPY) — -12.8% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 83.0 · Fwd P/E 47.0 · EV/EBITDA 16.9 · FCF yield 5.43% · 46% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) XN LP: HOLD @ 16.8% (contrib 2.00)
CBRE	Cbre Group Inc	1.60	XN LP	Railroads, tech/internet concentrated specialist	WATCHLIST	RIDING	4.1%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.60 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $163.31 → $143.2 (-12.3%, -17.8pp vs SPY) — -12.3% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 32.7 · Fwd P/E 16.2 · EV/EBITDA 23.1 · FCF yield 2.61% · 44% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) XN LP: NEW @ 4.1% (contrib 2.00)
BRK/B	Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del	1.60	Himalaya Capital Management LLC	Munger-disciple ultra-concentrated (BAC, MU core)	REDUCE	CHASING	12.6%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.60 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Financials Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Himalaya Capital Management LLC: HOLD @ 12.6% (contrib 2.00)
TTWO	Take-Two Interactive Softwar	1.44	Tiger Global Management	Tiger Cub growth	REDUCE	STALE	5.0%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.80 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.44 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $257.91 → $212.38 (-17.6%, -23.1pp vs SPY) — -17.7% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 27.0 · EV/EBITDA 49.5 · FCF yield 3.78% · 32% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Tiger Global Management: HOLD @ 5.0% (contrib 1.80)
HHH	Howard Hughes Holdings Inc	1.44	Pershing Square Capital	Activist value	REDUCE	STALE	9.7%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.80 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.44 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $80.16 → $62.48 (-22.1%, -27.6pp vs SPY) — -22.0% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 28.3 · Fwd P/E 61.3 · EV/EBITDA 14.6 · FCF yield 12.74% · 5% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Pershing Square Capital: HOLD @ 9.7% (contrib 1.80)
HLT	Hilton Worldwide Hldgs Inc	1.44	Pershing Square Capital	Activist value	REDUCE	SMALL PREMIUM	5.6%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.80 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.44 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $290.43 → $324.03 (+11.6%, +6.1pp vs SPY) — +11.6% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 49.5 · Fwd P/E 31.1 · EV/EBITDA 28.7 · FCF yield 2.28% · 81% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Pershing Square Capital: HOLD @ 5.6% (contrib 1.80)
CP	Canadian Pacific Kansas City	1.44	TCI Fund Management	Long-term activist value	REDUCE	CHASING	6.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.80 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.44 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $74.29 → $86.9 (+17.0%, +11.5pp vs SPY) — +17.0% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 26.5 · Fwd P/E 20.2 · EV/EBITDA 12.8 · FCF yield 2.43% · 88% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) TCI Fund Management: HOLD @ 6.5% (contrib 1.80)
TTAN	Servicetitan Inc	1.44	Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC	Long-term tech crossover (private + public)	WATCHLIST	STALE	5.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.80 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.44 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $107.18 → $59.64 (-44.4%, -49.9pp vs SPY) — -44.4% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 37.1 · EV/EBITDA -55.6 · FCF yield 2.69% · 6% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC: ADD @ 5.5% (contrib 1.80)
HTHT	H World Group Ltd	1.44	RV Capital	German value + global quality	REDUCE	SMALL PREMIUM	6.6%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.80 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.44 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $46.98 → $51.58 (+9.8%, +4.3pp vs SPY) — +9.8% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 22.0 · Fwd P/E 16.6 · EV/EBITDA 22.2 · FCF yield 39.26% · 81% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) RV Capital: HOLD @ 6.6% (contrib 1.80)
APLD	Applied Digital Corp	1.26	Situational Awareness LP	AI compute + power infrastructure	WATCHLIST	CHASING	5.0%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.57 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.26 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector AI Infra 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $24.08 → $34.63 (+43.8%, +38.3pp vs SPY) — +43.8% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E -34.1 · EV/EBITDA 853.7 · FCF yield -15.13% · 80% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Situational Awareness LP: ADD_BIG @ 5.0% (contrib 1.57)
U	Unity Software Inc	1.26	Atreides Management	TMT + consumer crossover	WATCHLIST	STALE	5.6%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.57 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.26 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $45.13 → $27.12 (-39.9%, -45.4pp vs SPY) — -39.9% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 21.3 · EV/EBITDA -1146.3 · FCF yield 4.65% · 29% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Atreides Management: ADD_BIG @ 5.6% (contrib 1.57)
MTZ	Mastec Inc	1.26	Peconic Partners LLC	Long/short generalist, energy + industrials tilt	WATCHLIST	CHASING	8.3%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.57 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.26 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $220.33 → $407.75 (+85.1%, +79.6pp vs SPY) — +85.1% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 80.3 · Fwd P/E 37.3 · FCF yield 0.38% · 98% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Peconic Partners LLC: ADD_BIG @ 8.3% (contrib 1.57)
SHW	Sherwin Williams Co	1.20	XN LP	Railroads, tech/internet concentrated specialist	REDUCE	CHASING	6.0%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.50 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.20 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟢 $326.16 → $322.39 (-1.2%, -6.7pp vs SPY) — -1.2% vs cutoff — signal intact, still a fresh entry 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 30.9 · Fwd P/E 24.3 · EV/EBITDA 20.5 · FCF yield 2.69% · 27% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) XN LP: HOLD @ 6.0% (contrib 1.50)
EWBC	East West Bancorp Inc	1.20	Himalaya Capital Management LLC	Munger-disciple ultra-concentrated (BAC, MU core)	REDUCE	SMALL PREMIUM	8.7%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.50 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.20 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $114.07 → $127.09 (+11.4%, +5.9pp vs SPY) — +11.4% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 12.7 · Fwd P/E 11.2 · 99% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Himalaya Capital Management LLC: HOLD @ 8.7% (contrib 1.50)
RSP	Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T	1.12	Duquesne Family Office	Macro + secular tech	WATCHLIST	SMALL PREMIUM	5.0%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.12 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $193.21 → $203.85 (+5.5%, +0.0pp vs SPY) — +5.5% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 23.2 · 96% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Duquesne Family Office: NEW @ 5.0% (contrib 1.40)
INTC	Intel Corp	1.12	Situational Awareness LP	AI compute + power infrastructure	REDUCE	CHASING	13.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.12 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Semiconductors 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $37.3 → $99.28 (+166.2%, +160.7pp vs SPY) — +166.2% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 67.1 · EV/EBITDA 35.3 · FCF yield -1.66% · 100% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Situational Awareness LP: HOLD @ 13.5% (contrib 1.40)
PWR	Quanta Scvs Inc	1.12	Peconic Partners LLC	Long/short generalist, energy + industrials tilt	REDUCE	CHASING	50.2%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.12 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Healthcare 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $428.81 → $719.31 (+67.8%, +62.2pp vs SPY) — +67.7% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 98.8 · Fwd P/E 45.9 · EV/EBITDA 43.9 · 96% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Peconic Partners LLC: HOLD @ 50.2% (contrib 1.40)
DY	Dycom Inds Inc	1.12	Peconic Partners LLC	Long/short generalist, energy + industrials tilt	REDUCE	CHASING	33.0%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.40 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.12 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $342.66 → $422.4 (+23.3%, +17.8pp vs SPY) — +23.3% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 44.1 · Fwd P/E 24.6 · EV/EBITDA 20.6 · FCF yield 2.18% · 91% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Peconic Partners LLC: HOLD @ 33.0% (contrib 1.40)
CORZ	Core Scientific Inc New	1.01	Situational Awareness LP	AI compute + power infrastructure	WATCHLIST	CHASING	7.6%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.26 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.01 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector AI Infra 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $14.61 → $20.77 (+42.2%, +36.7pp vs SPY) — +42.2% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 49.5 · EV/EBITDA -66.7 · FCF yield -8.23% · 81% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Situational Awareness LP: ADD @ 7.6% (contrib 1.26)
IREN	Iren Limited	1.01	Situational Awareness LP	AI compute + power infrastructure	WATCHLIST	CHASING	6.0%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.26 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.01 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector AI Infra 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $38.3 → $46.77 (+22.1%, +16.6pp vs SPY) — +22.1% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 32.5 · Fwd P/E 37.0 · EV/EBITDA 80.8 · FCF yield -8.05% · 58% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Situational Awareness LP: ADD @ 6.0% (contrib 1.26)
LYV	Live Nation Entertainment In	1.01	Jericho Capital Asset Management	TMT long/short	WATCHLIST	SMALL PREMIUM	6.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.26 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.01 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $144.09 → $157.72 (+9.5%, +4.0pp vs SPY) — +9.5% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 70.8 · EV/EBITDA 21.2 · FCF yield 2.99% · 65% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Jericho Capital Asset Management: ADD @ 6.5% (contrib 1.26)
FWONK	Liberty Media Corp Del	1.01	Jericho Capital Asset Management	TMT long/short	WATCHLIST	SMALL PREMIUM	5.1%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.26 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 1.01 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $98.21 → $88.56 (-9.8%, -15.3pp vs SPY) — -9.8% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 38.3 · Fwd P/E 42.2 · EV/EBITDA 26.4 · FCF yield 2.99% · 29% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Jericho Capital Asset Management: ADD @ 5.1% (contrib 1.26)
YUMC	Yum China Hldgs Inc	0.96	RV Capital	German value + global quality	REDUCE	CHASING	4.9%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.20 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.96 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟢 $47.81 → $49.13 (+2.8%, -2.7pp vs SPY) — +2.8% vs cutoff — signal intact, still a fresh entry 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 19.6 · Fwd P/E 15.1 · EV/EBITDA 10.0 · FCF yield 7.04% · 45% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) RV Capital: HOLD @ 4.9% (contrib 1.20)
GEV	Ge Vernova Inc	0.84	Coatue Management	Tiger Cub tech long/short	REDUCE	CHASING	5.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.05 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.84 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $659.64 → $1078.41 (+63.5%, +58.0pp vs SPY) — +63.5% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 31.5 · Fwd P/E 44.0 · EV/EBITDA 83.8 · FCF yield 3.21% · 87% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Coatue Management: HOLD @ 5.5% (contrib 1.05)
BILL	Bill Holdings Inc	0.84	Light Street Capital Management	Tiger Cub TMT	REDUCE	STALE	7.4%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.05 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.84 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $55.14 → $37.98 (-31.1%, -36.6pp vs SPY) — -31.1% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 14.0 · EV/EBITDA -1505.8 · FCF yield 3.26% · 16% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Light Street Capital Management: HOLD @ 7.4% (contrib 1.05)
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices Inc	0.84	Light Street Capital Management	Tiger Cub TMT	REDUCE	CHASING	7.2%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.05 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.84 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $215.34 → $353.88 (+64.3%, +58.8pp vs SPY) — +64.3% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 135.1 · Fwd P/E 31.9 · EV/EBITDA 84.7 · FCF yield 0.79% · 98% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Light Street Capital Management: HOLD @ 7.2% (contrib 1.05)
LEGN	Legend Biotech Corp	0.80	Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors)	Asia + global consumer/tech	REDUCE	SMALL PREMIUM	4.2%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.80 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $21.53 → $23.21 (+7.8%, +2.3pp vs SPY) — +7.8% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 20.2 · EV/EBITDA -64.2 · FCF yield -3.12% · 24% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors): HOLD @ 4.2% (contrib 1.00)
PCOR	Procore Technologies Inc	0.80	XN LP	Railroads, tech/internet concentrated specialist	REDUCE	STALE	4.7%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.80 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $73.77 → $58.06 (-21.3%, -26.8pp vs SPY) — -21.3% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 25.8 · EV/EBITDA -1085.3 · FCF yield 2.74% · 33% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) XN LP: HOLD @ 4.7% (contrib 1.00)
UNP	Union Pac Corp	0.80	XN LP	Railroads, tech/internet concentrated specialist	REDUCE	SMALL PREMIUM	4.5%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.80 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $233.06 → $267.99 (+15.0%, +9.5pp vs SPY) — +15.0% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 22.1 · Fwd P/E 19.6 · EV/EBITDA 15.1 · FCF yield 2.54% · 89% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) XN LP: HOLD @ 4.5% (contrib 1.00)
RBLX	Roblox Corp	0.80	Whale Rock Capital Management	TMT long-biased growth	REDUCE	STALE	4.2%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.80 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $81.81 → $45.52 (-44.4%, -49.9pp vs SPY) — -44.4% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E -34.5 · EV/EBITDA -36.6 · FCF yield 4.01% · 4% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Whale Rock Capital Management: HOLD @ 4.2% (contrib 1.00)
SMTC	Semtech Corp	0.80	Whale Rock Capital Management	TMT long-biased growth	REDUCE	CHASING	3.7%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.80 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $75.16 → $104.68 (+39.3%, +33.8pp vs SPY) — +39.3% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 36.0 · EV/EBITDA 61.9 · FCF yield 1.5% · 90% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Whale Rock Capital Management: HOLD @ 3.7% (contrib 1.00)
FN	Fabrinet	0.80	Whale Rock Capital Management	TMT long-biased growth	REDUCE	CHASING	3.6%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 1.00 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.80 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $461.93 → $700.55 (+51.7%, +46.2pp vs SPY) — +51.7% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 67.0 · Fwd P/E 42.0 · EV/EBITDA 54.1 · FCF yield -0.09% · 94% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Whale Rock Capital Management: HOLD @ 3.6% (contrib 1.00)
P	Pure Storage Inc	0.67	Atreides Management	TMT + consumer crossover	WATCHLIST	SMALL PREMIUM	4.7%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 0.84 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.67 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $67.79 → $71.95 (+6.1%, +0.6pp vs SPY) — +6.1% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 130.8 · Fwd P/E 25.3 · EV/EBITDA 88.7 · FCF yield 1.58% · 47% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Atreides Management: ADD @ 4.7% (contrib 0.84)
FUTU	Futu Hldgs Ltd	0.60	Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors)	Asia + global consumer/tech	REDUCE	REDUCING	8.6%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 0.75 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.60 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $165.27 → $154.3 (-6.6%, -12.1pp vs SPY) — -6.6% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 15.1 · Fwd P/E 11.0 · 55% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors): TRIM @ 8.6% (contrib 0.75)
CLS	Celestica Inc	0.60	Whale Rock Capital Management	TMT long-biased growth	REDUCE	REDUCING	7.1%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 0.75 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.60 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $299.4 → $415.19 (+38.7%, +33.2pp vs SPY) — +38.7% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 50.4 · Fwd P/E 27.6 · EV/EBITDA 34.5 · FCF yield 1.36% · 98% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Whale Rock Capital Management: TRIM @ 7.1% (contrib 0.75)
WWD	Woodward Inc	0.56	Duquesne Family Office	Macro + secular tech	REDUCE	CHASING	4.0%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 0.70 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.56 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $303.1 → $364.49 (+20.2%, +14.8pp vs SPY) — +20.3% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 43.7 · Fwd P/E 35.0 · EV/EBITDA 30.8 · FCF yield 0.91% · 80% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Duquesne Family Office: HOLD @ 4.0% (contrib 0.70)
ETN	Eaton Corp Plc	0.56	Coatue Management	Tiger Cub tech long/short	REDUCE	CHASING	3.8%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 0.70 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.56 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🔴 $320.86 → $427.7 (+33.3%, +27.8pp vs SPY) — +33.3% above cutoff — edge mostly consumed, smart money got the lift 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 41.0 · Fwd P/E 27.6 · EV/EBITDA 28.2 · FCF yield 1.57% · 95% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Coatue Management: HOLD @ 3.8% (contrib 0.70)
DOCU	Docusign Inc	0.56	Jericho Capital Asset Management	TMT long/short	REDUCE	STALE	3.7%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 0.70 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.56 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other ⚠️ Exiting Funds NWI Management LP 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $69.08 → $46.88 (-32.1%, -37.6pp vs SPY) — -32.1% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 31.7 · Fwd P/E 9.3 · EV/EBITDA 24.4 · FCF yield 13.18% · 12% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Jericho Capital Asset Management: HOLD @ 3.7% (contrib 0.70)
ASHR	Dbx Etf Tr	0.56	NWI Management LP	EM macro credit + equity	REDUCE	SMALL PREMIUM	3.8%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 0.70 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.56 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟡 $32.96 → $35.59 (+8.0%, +2.5pp vs SPY) — +8.0% above cutoff — some decay, still actionable for high-conviction names 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 17.5 · 100% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) NWI Management LP: HOLD @ 3.8% (contrib 0.70)
TRU	Transunion	0.40	XN LP	Railroads, tech/internet concentrated specialist	REDUCE	REDUCING	4.2%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 0.50 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.40 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $86.99 → $71.41 (-17.9%, -23.4pp vs SPY) — -17.9% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 19.8 · Fwd P/E 12.8 · EV/EBITDA 13.0 · FCF yield 5.45% · 18% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) XN LP: TRIM @ 4.2% (contrib 0.50)
FIG	Figma Inc	0.40	Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC	Long-term tech crossover (private + public)	REDUCE	REDUCING	3.9%
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 0.50 × style-haircut 0.8x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 0.40 Style Diversity 1 distinct styles across 1 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $37.63 → $18.76 (-50.1%, -55.6pp vs SPY) — -50.1% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot Fwd P/E 65.5 · EV/EBITDA -6.0 · FCF yield 7.59% · 2% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC: TRIM @ 3.9% (contrib 0.50)

Tier 3: Cross-Domain Emerging Signals

Two funds from different styles converging. May become Tier 1 next quarter if a third fund joins.

Ticker	Company	Score	Fund 1	Fund 2	Style Match	Action	Entry
BN	Brookfield Corp	3.82	Pershing Square Capital	Lone Pine Capital	concentrated_growth + concentrated_value	SMALL_BUY	RIDING
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.88 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 3.82 Style Diversity 2 distinct styles across 2 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge 🟢 $46.29 → $45.53 (-1.6%, -7.2pp vs SPY) — -1.6% vs cutoff — signal intact, still a fresh entry 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 92.9 · Fwd P/E 7.8 · EV/EBITDA 15.5 · FCF yield -4.54% · 70% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Pershing Square Capital: ADD @ 18.1% (contrib 2.88)Lone Pine Capital: ADD_BIG @ 5.4% (contrib 1.57)
BABA	Alibaba Group Hldg Ltd	3.60	Appaloosa LP	Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors)	distressed_value + long_hold_growth	REDUCE	REDUCING
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 3.00 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 3.60 Style Diversity 2 distinct styles across 2 funds Sector International ⚠️ Exiting Funds Coatue Management, Light Street Capital Management, Altimeter Capital 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $147.36 → $132.34 (-10.2%, -15.7pp vs SPY) — -10.2% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 23.4 · Fwd P/E 17.8 · EV/EBITDA 17.8 · FCF yield -8.0% · 32% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Appaloosa LP: TRIM @ 10.9% (contrib 1.00)Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors): ADD_BIG @ 25.6% (contrib 3.00)
BAC	Bank America Corp	3.60	Berkshire Hathaway	Himalaya Capital Management LLC	concentrated_quality_value + quality_value	REDUCE	CHASING
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 3.60 Style Diversity 2 distinct styles across 2 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $55.28 → $53.86 (-2.6%, -8.1pp vs SPY) — -2.6% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 13.4 · Fwd P/E 10.7 · 78% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Berkshire Hathaway: HOLD @ 10.4% (contrib 2.40)Himalaya Capital Management LLC: HOLD @ 16.1% (contrib 2.00)
MCO	Moodys Corp	3.12	Berkshire Hathaway	TCI Fund Management	concentrated_value + quality_value	REDUCE	CHASING
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 3.12 Style Diversity 2 distinct styles across 2 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $515.75 → $462.04 (-10.4%, -15.9pp vs SPY) — -10.4% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 33.1 · Fwd P/E 24.9 · EV/EBITDA 22.7 · FCF yield 2.81% · 41% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Berkshire Hathaway: HOLD @ 4.6% (contrib 1.20)TCI Fund Management: HOLD @ 12.7% (contrib 2.40)
UBER	Uber Technologies Inc	3.03	Pershing Square Capital	Altimeter Capital	concentrated_tmt + concentrated_value	REDUCE	CHASING
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 3.03 Style Diversity 2 distinct styles across 2 funds Sector Tech ⚠️ Exiting Funds Jericho Capital Asset Management 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $82.12 → $74.87 (-8.8%, -14.3pp vs SPY) — -8.8% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 15.8 · Fwd P/E 17.4 · EV/EBITDA 25.2 · FCF yield 4.12% · 19% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) Pershing Square Capital: HOLD @ 15.9% (contrib 2.40)Altimeter Capital: HOLD @ 6.8% (contrib 1.05)
GE	Ge Aerospace	3.00	TCI Fund Management	XN LP	concentrated_specialist + concentrated_value	REDUCE	CHASING
Raw Score Build-Up Top contrib 2.40 × style-haircut 1.0x × cult-penalty 1.0x = 3.00 Style Diversity 2 distinct styles across 2 funds Sector Other 💰 Price Edge ⚫ $311.79 → $291.02 (-6.7%, -12.2pp vs SPY) — -6.7% below cutoff — potentially BETTER entry than smart money's avg 📊 Valuation Snapshot P/E 36.1 · Fwd P/E 33.5 · EV/EBITDA 28.4 · FCF yield 1.86% · 60% of 52w range Holding Funds (sorted by contribution) TCI Fund Management: HOLD @ 27.3% (contrib 2.40)XN LP: HOLD @ 4.9% (contrib 1.00)

REDUCE Signals (2+ Funds Exiting)

Ticker	Company	Exits	Still Held	Action	Reason	Funds Exiting
SE	Sea Ltd	4 funds	2 still holding	REDUCE/WATCH	4 funds exited — potential broken thesis	Light Street Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors), Whale Rock Capital Management
VRNA	Verona Pharma Plc	2 funds	0 still holding	REDUCE/WATCH	2 funds exited — potential broken thesis	Duquesne Family Office, NWI Management LP
META	Meta Platforms Inc	2 funds	8 still holding	REDUCE/WATCH	2 funds exited — potential broken thesis	Duquesne Family Office, Lone Pine Capital
BABA	Alibaba Group Hldg Ltd	3 funds	2 still holding	REDUCE/WATCH	3 funds exited — potential broken thesis	Coatue Management, Light Street Capital Management, Altimeter Capital
PDD	Pdd Holdings Inc	2 funds	3 still holding	REDUCE/WATCH	2 funds exited — potential broken thesis	Altimeter Capital, RV Capital
MDB	Mongodb Inc	2 funds	2 still holding	REDUCE/WATCH	2 funds exited — potential broken thesis	Tiger Global Management, Light Street Capital Management
INTU	Intuit	3 funds	0 still holding	REDUCE/WATCH	3 funds exited — potential broken thesis	Coatue Management, Atreides Management, Jericho Capital Asset Management
MRVL	Marvell Technology Inc	2 funds	0 still holding	REDUCE/WATCH	2 funds exited — potential broken thesis	Atreides Management, NWI Management LP
WBD	Warner Bros Discovery Inc	2 funds	0 still holding	REDUCE/WATCH	2 funds exited — potential broken thesis	Jericho Capital Asset Management, Peconic Partners LLC

All Complete Exits (Watchlist)

Complete exits this quarter. Multi-fund exits (2+) generate formal REDUCE signals; single-fund exits are shown for watchlist tracking.

Ticker	Company	Sector	Exits	Still Held By	Funds Exiting
SE	Sea Ltd	Other	4	2	Light Street Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors), Whale Rock Capital Management
BABA	Alibaba Group Hldg Ltd	International	3	2	Coatue Management, Light Street Capital Management, Altimeter Capital
INTU	Intuit	Other	3	0	Coatue Management, Atreides Management, Jericho Capital Asset Management
VRNA	Verona Pharma Plc	Other	2	0	Duquesne Family Office, NWI Management LP
META	Meta Platforms Inc	Tech	2	8	Duquesne Family Office, Lone Pine Capital
PDD	Pdd Holdings Inc	Other	2	3	Altimeter Capital, RV Capital
MDB	Mongodb Inc	Other	2	2	Tiger Global Management, Light Street Capital Management
MRVL	Marvell Technology Inc	Semiconductors	2	0	Atreides Management, NWI Management LP
WBD	Warner Bros Discovery Inc	Other	2	0	Jericho Capital Asset Management, Peconic Partners LLC
CRS	Carpenter Technology Corp	Other	1	0	Duquesne Family Office
C	Citigroup Inc	Financials	1	0	Duquesne Family Office
TWLO	Twilio Inc	Other	1	0	Duquesne Family Office
NVDA	Nvidia Corporation	Other	1	8	Situational Awareness LP
MSFT	Microsoft Corp	Tech	1	8	Whale Rock Capital Management
FISV	Fiserv Inc	Other	1	0	Appaloosa LP
TFC	Truist Finl Corp	Other	1	0	Appaloosa LP
CZR	Caesars Entertainment Inc Ne	Other	1	0	Appaloosa LP
KEY	Keycorp	Other	1	0	Appaloosa LP
CFG	Citizens Finl Group Inc	Other	1	0	Appaloosa LP
AVGO	Broadcom Inc	AI Infra	1	5	Situational Awareness LP
FLUT	Flutter Entmt Plc	Other	1	1	Lone Pine Capital
TFIN	Triumph Financial Inc	Other	1	0	Tiger Global Management
VIA	Via Transn Inc	Other	1	0	Tiger Global Management
UBER	Uber Technologies Inc	Tech	1	2	Jericho Capital Asset Management
CMG	Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc	Other	1	0	Pershing Square Capital
CRWV	Coreweave Inc	AI Infra	1	2	Coatue Management
TEAM	Atlassian Corporation	Other	1	0	Coatue Management
KKR	Kkr & Co Inc	Other	1	1	Coatue Management
NFLX	Netflix Inc	Tech	1	2	Whale Rock Capital Management
DDOG	Datadog Inc	Tech	1	0	Light Street Capital Management
SNOW	Snowflake Inc	Other	1	3	Light Street Capital Management
VST	Vistra Corp	Power/Nuclear	1	1	Situational Awareness LP
SBUX	Starbucks Corp	Consumer	1	0	Lone Pine Capital
EQT	Eqt Corp	Energy	1	2	Lone Pine Capital
LLYVK*	Liberty Media Corp Del	Other	1	0	Berkshire Hathaway
LLYVA*	Liberty Media Corp Del	Other	1	0	Berkshire Hathaway
FWONKUSD	Liberty Media Corp Del	Other	1	0	Berkshire Hathaway
SHOP	Shopify Inc	International	1	1	Whale Rock Capital Management
ARM	Arm Holdings Plc	Other	1	0	Altimeter Capital
SNPS	Synopsys Inc	Other	1	0	Altimeter Capital
CART	Maplebear Inc	Other	1	0	Altimeter Capital
BIDU	Baidu Inc	Other	1	0	Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors)
NTES	Netease Inc	Other	1	0	Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors)
YMM	Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd	Other	1	0	Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors)
EM	Smart Sh Global Ltd	Other	1	0	Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors)
GDX	Vaneck Etf Trust	Other	1	0	Situational Awareness LP
GLXY	Galaxy Digital Inc.	Other	1	0	Situational Awareness LP
HGV	Hilton Grand Vacations Inc	Other	1	1	CAS Investment Partners
CDLX	Cardlytics Inc	Other	1	1	CAS Investment Partners
VRT	Vertiv Holdings Co	Other	1	0	Whale Rock Capital Management
DECK	Deckers Outdoor Corp	Other	1	0	Atreides Management
HUBS	Hubspot Inc	Other	1	0	Atreides Management
ELF	E L F Beauty Inc	Other	1	0	Atreides Management
DOCU	Docusign Inc	Other	1	1	NWI Management LP
HPE	Hewlett Packard Enterprise C	Other	1	0	Jericho Capital Asset Management
TTD	The Trade Desk Inc	Other	1	0	Jericho Capital Asset Management
IBIT	Ishares Bitcoin Tr	Other	1	0	NWI Management LP

Sector Rotation Meta-Signal

The rotation into AI infrastructure + nuclear power + China is unmistakable. Seven sectors show net-positive institutional buying this quarter. The standouts:

AI Infrastructure (+16 net buys, ZERO sells) — CoreWeave, Nebius, Arista, and Broadcom absorb the capital rotating out of direct Nvidia exposure. This is the cleanest 'picks and shovels' thesis.
Power/Nuclear (+6 net buys, ZERO sells) — Vistra (VST), Constellation (CEG), plus speculative positions in SMR and OKLO. The AI-capex-needs-power thesis has gone mainstream.
China/EM (+6 net buys, ZERO sells) — Tepper ADD_BIG on BABA, PDD, KWEB, FXI. Sosin and Vinall join him in BABA. Druckenmiller's EWZ (Brazil) also counts here.
Industrials/Railroads (+3 net) — Kapadia's edge domain + Hohn's long-term monopolistic-business thesis converge on CNI, CP, UNP, NSC, CSX.

The losers:

Healthcare (-4 net) — 4 funds trimming (Druckenmiller NTRA/TEVA/INSM/VRNA + Mandel LLY). This contradicts the dry-run thesis that positioned healthcare as a major theme.
SaaS (-2 net) — Laffont EXIT SNOW, Kacher TRIM DDOG, Druckenmiller EXIT MDB. Multiple Tiger Cubs rotating out of high-multiple SaaS.

What's NOT a consensus despite looking like one: Crowded names like GOOGL, META, MSFT often fail to generate signals because the cult-stock penalty combined with the Tiger-Cub haircut drops their composite scores below 3.0. The formula is working as intended — it rewards distinctive, uncorrelated conviction, not ubiquitous holding.

Sector Flows: Net Positive

Sector	Net Flow	Buys	Sells	Total Weight
AI Infra	+4	10	6	136.3%
Tech	+4	17	13	392.4%
Semiconductors	+3	6	3	50.8%

Sector Flows: Net Negative

Sector	Net Flow	Buys	Sells	Total Weight
International	-3	3	6	48.4%
Healthcare	-4	0	4	92.5%
Other	-13	63	76	1113.4%

Cult-Stock Watch

These names are held by many funds on the watchlist. The cult-stock penalty suppresses their composite score because holding a crowded name offers less alpha than a distinctive conviction. You probably already know about these — the signal here is the absence of a signal.

Ticker	Fund Count	Penalty	Note
AMZN	14/20	0.5x	Held by 14 of 22 funds — crowded (0.5x penalty)
GOOGL	13/20	0.5x	Held by 13 of 22 funds — crowded (0.5x penalty)
TSM	9/20	0.75x	Held by 9 of 22 funds — moderately crowded (0.75x penalty)
META	8/20	0.75x	Held by 8 of 22 funds — moderately crowded (0.75x penalty)
NVDA	8/20	0.75x	Held by 8 of 22 funds — moderately crowded (0.75x penalty)
MSFT	8/20	0.75x	Held by 8 of 22 funds — moderately crowded (0.75x penalty)

Per-Fund Activity Breakdown

Summary of each fund's Q4 2025 activity on their top tracked positions.

Manager	Fund	AUM	Turnover	Positions	NEW	ADD	TRIM	EXIT	Edge
Warren Buffett	Berkshire Hathaway	$274.2B	9%	42	0	0	0	3	Permanent capital
Chris Hohn	TCI Fund Management	$53.6B	0%	9	0	0	1	0	Long-term activist value
Philippe Laffont	Coatue Management	$40.0B	47%	52	0	2	0	5	Tiger Cub tech long/short
Chase Coleman	Tiger Global Management	$29.7B	5%	54	0	0	5	3	Tiger Cub growth
Bill Ackman	Pershing Square Capital	$15.5B	9%	11	1	2	1	1	Activist value
Stephen Mandel	Lone Pine Capital	$13.6B	43%	32	3	3	1	5	Tiger Cub long-bias
Josh Resnick	Jericho Capital Asset Management	$8.8B	33%	25	2	5	4	5	TMT long/short
Gavin Baker	Atreides Management	$8.2B	29%	50	1	8	2	5	TMT + consumer crossover
Alex Sacerdote	Whale Rock Capital Management	$7.8B	19%	32	1	6	4	5	TMT long-biased growth
David Tepper	Appaloosa LP	$6.9B	20%	38	1	4	3	5	Contrarian credit/equity
Brad Gerstner	Altimeter Capital	$6.7B	34%	18	2	3	3	5	Growth + pre-IPO crossover
Leopold Aschenbrenner	Situational Awareness LP	$5.5B	48%	25	4	10	0	5	AI compute + power infrastructure
Stanley Druckenmiller	Duquesne Family Office	$4.5B	46%	60	3	6	5	5	Macro + secular tech
William Harnisch	Peconic Partners LLC	$4.2B	40%	15	6	4	0	1	Long/short generalist, energy + industrials tilt
Gaurav Kapadia	XN LP	$3.6B	19%	26	1	2	2	0	Railroads, tech/internet concentrated specialist
Li Lu	Himalaya Capital Management LLC	$3.6B	11%	9	1	0	0	0	Munger-disciple ultra-concentrated (BAC, MU core)
Lei Zhang / Hillhouse team	Hillhouse Capital (HHLR Advisors)	$3.1B	18%	33	0	2	2	5	Asia + global consumer/tech
Neil Mehta	Greenoaks Capital Partners LLC	$3.0B	20%	10	2	2	4	0	Long-term tech crossover (private + public)
Clifford Sosin	CAS Investment Partners	$2.3B	40%	5	2	0	0	2	Ultra-concentrated deep value
Hari Hariharan	NWI Management LP	$2.2B	25%	50	3	3	2	5	EM macro credit + equity
Glen Kacher	Light Street Capital Management	$0.7B	33%	24	3	6	2	5	Tiger Cub TMT
Robert Vinall	RV Capital	$0.4B	7%	12	0	0	1	1	German value + global quality

Visual Analytics

Signal Formula

Score = Base × Freshness × Conviction × Action × Style Haircut × Cult-Stock Penalty
        (aggregated with diminishing-return consensus bonus across funds)

Freshness  (fund turnover): <10%=1.2x | 10-25%=1.0x | 25-50%=0.7x | >50%=0.5x
Conviction (% portfolio):   >10%=2.0x | 5-10%=1.5x | 2-5%=1.0x | 0.5-2%=0.6x | <0.5%=0.3x
Action:                     NEW=2.0x | ADD_BIG=1.5x | ADD=1.2x | HOLD=1.0x
                            TRIM=0.5x | TRIM_BIG=0.2x | EXIT=-1.0x
Haircut:                    3+ Tiger Cubs=0.67x | All same style=0.8x | Mixed styles=1.0x
Cult-Stock:                 10+ funds hold=0.5x | 6-9=0.75x | ≤5=1.0x

Aggregation: Top fund contribution + diminishing consensus bonus for additional funds.
             base = strongest_fund_score
             for each additional fund i: base += contribution × (0.4^i + 0.2)
             final = base × style_haircut × cult_penalty

Minimum emission threshold: 3.0

───────────── Price Context Layer (timing filter, not part of score) ─────────────
For every emitted signal, fetch (via yfinance):
  - Close on last trading day of quarter (13F cutoff)
  - Current close
  - SPY cutoff + current (for relative performance)
  - 52-week high/low
  - Trailing P/E, Forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, FCF yield, market cap

Derived:
  - % change since cutoff        → Price Edge band (🟢🟡🔴⚫)
  - % vs SPY                     → relative performance
  - 52w range position           → washed-out vs near-highs

Price Edge bands:
  🟢 Intact   (within ±5% of cutoff)    — full-size entry still possible
  🟡 Decaying (+5% to +15%)             — some decay, 2/3 size
  🔴 Stale    (+15% or more)            — late to the party, 1/3 size or skip
  ⚫ Below    (negative since cutoff)    — potentially BETTER entry than smart money

❓ FAQ — Plain-English Answers

What does a "good" signal look like?

A good signal has all of these: (1) Score ≥ 4.0, (2) 3+ funds converging, (3) style diversity ≥ 2 (so it's not just the Tiger Cubs herding), (4) Entry Quality = RIDING or SMALL PREMIUM (you're still close to the funds' cost basis), (5) not on the Cult Stock list. BABA this quarter is the textbook example: 4.90 score, 3 funds, 2 styles (macro + value + European value), RIDING entry, not crowded.

What's the "Cult Penalty" and why does it exist?

The cult penalty is a score multiplier that reduces the signal strength when too many funds hold the same name. 10+ funds hold → 0.5x (halves the score). 6-9 funds → 0.75x. ≤5 funds → no penalty. Why? Because if 17 of 20 elite funds already own GOOGL, the information is fully priced in — there's no edge in finding out they own it. You already knew. The penalty forces the formula to reward distinctive conviction, not ubiquitous holding. GOOGL with 17 holders dropped to 2.96 score (below the 3.0 threshold) this quarter despite being the most-held name — exactly the intended behavior.

What's the "Tiger Cub Haircut"?

"Tiger Cubs" are hedge funds founded by alumni of Julian Robertson's Tiger Management — Tiger Global (Coleman), Light Street (Kacher), Coatue (Laffont), Lone Pine (Mandel), Altimeter (Gerstner), SCGE (Wang), Slate Path (Greenspan). They share a similar investing style (high-growth tech), so they often pile into the same names. The haircut (0.67x) discounts signals where 3+ Tiger Cubs are the primary holders — because correlated managers agreeing isn't 3 independent data points, it's 1 style voting 3 times.

Why didn't GOOGL/META/MSFT signal? Everyone's buying them.

Exactly — "everyone's buying them" IS the problem. GOOGL is held by 17/20 funds, META by 15/20, MSFT by 8/20. After the cult penalty (0.5x) and style haircut (0.67x for GOOGL/META where 8+ Tiger Cubs hold), their composite scores fall below the 3.0 emission threshold. The formula is working correctly: a signal's value is in telling you something you don't already know. GOOGL at a trillion-dollar valuation with 17 smart-money holders is common knowledge, not alpha. The signal absence for these names is itself information — it tells you to look elsewhere for edge.

What's the difference between the 3 tiers?

Tier 1 (CONSENSUS) — 3+ funds hold. Safest because the independent agreement reduces single-manager risk. Within Tier 1, "Strong" = 4+ funds across 3+ styles; "Moderate" = 3+ funds across 2+ styles; "Weak" = 3+ funds same style (risky because they may be correlated).

Tier 2 (SOLO-EXPERT) — 1 fund, but that fund has explicit edge in the domain. E.g., Aschenbrenner going big on nuclear power is SOLO because his edge domain IS AI infrastructure / power. This can be as actionable as Tier 1 but higher variance.

Tier 3 (CROSS-DOMAIN) — 2 funds from DIFFERENT styles converging. Emerging signal. Often becomes Tier 1 next quarter as more funds discover the idea.

What does Entry Quality mean?

A proxy for "how much of the move have the funds already captured?" If most funds are NEW or ADD_BIG, the position is freshly built — you're close to their cost basis = RIDING. If they're all HOLDing a position built quarters ago, the stock may have already run = CHASING or LATE. Practical translation: RIDING signals can get full position sizing; CHASING should be half-sized; LATE should be skipped or watched for a pullback.

What's "Freshness" — why does fund turnover matter?

High-turnover funds (Druckenmiller 64%, Greenspan 52%) trade in and out aggressively — their signals are time-sensitive and may already be stale by the time you see them (13Fs are 45 days stale at filing). The 0.5x freshness multiplier for >50% turnover accounts for this. Low-turnover funds (Buffett 5%, Hohn 9%, CAS 6%) get a 1.2x boost because when they act, it's meaningful — they've rarely changed their mind in years.

What's "Conviction"?

The % of a fund's portfolio allocated to the position. A 10%+ position is a bet-the-fund conviction (2.0x multiplier). A 0.5-2% position is exploratory (0.6x). The multiplier reflects how much the fund itself believes in the name. Ackman holding UBER at 18.5% of his entire portfolio is a far stronger signal than one of 50 fund positions at 0.3%.

What does "Action" encode?

What the fund did this quarter vs. last: NEW (2.0x — opened a new position), ADD_BIG (1.5x — added >50% more shares), ADD (1.2x — added 20-50%), HOLD (1.0x — neutral), TRIM (0.5x — reduced 20%+), TRIM_BIG (0.2x — reduced 50%+), EXIT (-1.0x — fully out). NEW and ADD_BIG carry the highest signal because they represent active capital commitment in the current quarter.

What's "Style Diversity"?

How many distinct investing styles are represented among the holders. 5 Tiger Cubs holding something = 1 style. Tepper (macro) + Sosin (value) + Aschenbrenner (AI infra specialist) holding something = 3 styles. More distinct styles = more independent conviction = higher-quality signal. This is what separates a genuine consensus from a crowd-trade.

Why 3.0 as the emission threshold?

Empirically chosen. Scores below 3.0 historically don't generate enough edge to justify action after transaction costs and taxes. Scores 3.0-4.0 are "emerging" (small position or watchlist). 4.0-5.0 are "strong" (meaningful position). 5.0+ are "elite" (max conviction).

What are the Exit Signals?

When 2+ funds who previously held a name fully EXIT in the same quarter, the formula emits a REDUCE signal. This is your early-warning for broken theses. Single-fund exits are shown in the "All Complete Exits" table as watchlist items. Q4 2025 had no multi-fund exits.

Why did Healthcare show as a losing sector when my last report was Druckenmiller-heavy?

The Druckenmiller-only dry run (Q4 2025, generated Apr 30 13:52) positioned Healthcare as the dominant theme because NTRA was his top position. That was accurate for Druckenmiller. But with all 20 funds visible, the aggregate picture shows 4 funds trimming healthcare (Druck TEVA/INSM/VRNA/NTRA + Mandel LLY) and NONE adding meaningfully. Healthcare flipped from "Druckenmiller's story" to "-4 net" across the cohort. This is the power of running 20 funds vs 1: it distinguishes idiosyncratic from consensus.

What about cult stocks that have FALLEN since the 13F? Aren't those interesting?

Yes, and that's exactly what the 💎 Hidden Value tab surfaces. The cult penalty assumes a crowded name's alpha is already priced in — which is true when the price keeps climbing. But if a 15-fund cult name has since dropped 10%, the "crowd has bought" logic reverses: the market has gotten off the name, and you can enter at a better price than the smart money got. The detector scans every position across all 20 funds (not just emitted signals) and flags any name where raw holdings conviction was ≥4.0, cult penalty suppressed it below threshold, and price has fallen ≥8% since cutoff. This quarter: MSFT (8 funds, -16.4%) and META (15 funds, -8.1%) both qualify — names the cohort loaded up on in Q4 that the market has since faded.

Why aren't Hidden Value names auto-emitted as Tier-1/2/3 signals?

Because they failed the original score criteria and the rescue logic is a post-hoc "second look." Auto-emitting them would mean the cult penalty isn't really a penalty — it'd just be a delay. Instead, Hidden Value is a manual-review candidate list: names worth considering but requiring extra due diligence (why did the stock fall? is the thesis intact? macro dip or company-specific?). Treat Hidden Value like a watchlist, not a buy list. Size positions half what you'd use for an emitted Tier-1 signal.

What's the "rescue score"?

Rescue score = raw_score × |price_drop_pct| / 10. It's a sort order, not a decision threshold. MSFT at raw 5.2 with -16.4% drop scores 8.52; META at raw 7.3 with -8.1% drop scores 5.94. Higher means stronger pre-penalty conviction combined with bigger decay. Use it to prioritize review order, not to decide what to buy.

How is today's stock price factored into the signal score?

It isn't — by design. The signal score is built entirely from 13F holdings data: share counts, portfolio %, conviction, cohort convergence, cult crowding. 13F filings don't disclose purchase prices, so there's no cost basis to reference. The score answers "how much did the smart money commit to this?" — not "is today's price a bargain?" Those are two different questions, and the report separates them intentionally.

Then how do I know if the current price still makes sense?

That's what the 💰 Price & Valuation tab exists for. It layers price context on top of the signal score — showing the 13F-cutoff price, today's price, the % change since cutoff (is the edge still there, or did the post-13F rally consume it?), vs-SPY relative performance, and a valuation snapshot (P/E, Forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, 52-week range position). Use Price Edge as a timing filter on top of the signal score.

What do the Price Edge bands mean?

For each emitted signal, the price change since 13F cutoff determines a band:

🟢 Intact (±5%) — the stock hasn't moved much. You can still buy near smart money's average cost. Full-size position if other criteria check out.
🟡 Decaying (+5% to +15%) — some edge has been consumed but a long-horizon thesis still has room. 2/3 size.
🔴 Stale (+15% or more) — the post-13F rally captured the bulk of the alpha. You're late. 1/3 size or skip; wait for a pullback.
⚫ Below cutoff (negative) — the stock has fallen since smart money bought. You can potentially enter at a BETTER price than they got. Aggressive buy — but verify the thesis isn't broken (why did it fall?).

"Below cutoff" — that sounds too good. Isn't smart money catching a falling knife?

Sometimes yes. A ⚫ signal demands extra due diligence. Ask: did anything fundamentally change since the filing? Earnings miss? Management shake-up? Regulatory issue? If the thesis is intact (macro event pulled everything down, unrelated sector rotation, a one-quarter disappointment in a multi-year story), then yes, you're getting a better entry than three elite funds got. If the thesis is broken (the company's story changed), then the funds will likely exit next quarter's 13F — and you'd be stepping into a dying position. The ⚫ band is the highest-signal, highest-risk category. Always cross-reference with valuation metrics and recent news.

What's "vs SPY"?

The signal's price change since 13F cutoff minus SPY's price change over the same period. Positive = outperforming the market (the thesis is working). Negative = underperforming (either the market moved and the signal didn't, or the signal moved down more). A stock up 8% while SPY was up 20% looks "intact" in absolute terms but is actually lagging badly — vs SPY catches this.

How do I read the valuation metrics?

Rough guide:

Trailing P/E: <15 = cheap, 15-25 = normal, >30 = pricey. Missing/None = company is not profitable.
Forward P/E: generally preferred over trailing because it uses next-year estimates. Same bands, usually lower than trailing for growing companies.
EV/EBITDA: <10 = cheap, 10-15 = normal, >20 = pricey. Negative EV/EBITDA means the company isn't profitable at the EBITDA level — common for early-stage growth names like NBIS (Nebius) but a major red flag for mature companies.
FCF Yield: free cash flow divided by market cap. >6% = cheap on cash generation, 3-6% = normal, <2% = growth premium, negative = burning cash.
52-week range position: 0% = sitting at 52w low, 100% = sitting at 52w high. <30% = washed out (potential bounce candidate). >70% = near highs (momentum or euphoria).

These are just starting points — valuation is contextual (a 35 P/E is cheap for a 30%-grower, expensive for a 3%-grower). The tab gives you the numbers; you have to apply the context.

Where does the price data come from?

Yahoo Finance via the yfinance Python library. Free, no API key, rate-limit-tolerant for single-run batches. Prices are fetched at report-generation time, so each regenerated report reflects the latest close. The cutoff date is the last trading day of the reporting quarter (e.g. Dec 31 2025 for Q4 2025).

Why didn't my signal's valuation show certain metrics?

yfinance's info dict doesn't always populate every field. Common reasons: (1) ADRs or foreign-listed names have partial data, (2) recently-IPO'd companies have short histories (CRWV shows "None" P/E because it had trailing losses and yfinance's P/E logic won't return a negative number), (3) company is in a transition (pre-revenue, pre-profit, or post-restructuring). The table shows "—" for missing fields. Cross-reference with a second source (Finviz, Seeking Alpha) if you need the number.

What kill-switches exist?

Nine kill-switches prevent bad signals during extraordinary conditions: (1) VIX > 40 = advisory only, no new BUY signals. (2) Manager retirement = exclude fund 4 quarters. (3) Fund AUM drops >50% QoQ = 0.5x weight. (4) SEC enforcement on signal name = refuse BUY. (5) Delisting/bankruptcy risk = refuse BUY. (6) Late/amended 13F = flag. (7) Pending M&A/tender = special situation, no new BUY. No kill-switches are active for Q4 2025.

How often does this run?

Quarterly, 3 days after the 13F filing deadline:

Q4 2025: Feb 17, 2026 (this report — dry-run)
Q1 2026: May 18, 2026 (next scheduled automated run)
Q2 2026: Aug 17, 2026
Q3 2026: Nov 19, 2026

What can this NOT see?

13F filings disclose US equity long positions only. Not visible: (1) short positions — funds may be long GOOGL + short META as a pair trade, and we'd only see the GOOGL. (2) Put options used as hedges. (3) Total-return swaps (Archegos-style leverage). (4) Non-US holdings (a European fund's Japanese stocks are invisible). (5) Private positions (pre-IPO). (6) Cash positions and leverage. Always assume the picture is incomplete, especially for long/short funds like Jericho.

What if a fund files an amended 13F later?

Amended filings get flagged but don't retroactively change prior reports unless the change is >20% of the position. The next quarterly run picks up any amendments automatically.

Is this financial advice?

No. Smart money is wrong ~40% of the time — elite hedge funds blew up on Archegos, Silicon Valley Bank, Chinese EVs, various WeWork-style bets. This report is a data-driven starting point for your own research, not a trade execution system. Always do your own due diligence, size positions within your risk tolerance, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Data Quality Notes

Funds Processed: 20 of 20 (complete watchlist).

Data Source: Q4 2025 13F-HR filings (deadline Feb 17, 2026). Positions held as of Dec 31, 2025.

Staleness: 13F data is 45 days stale at filing. Some funds (Druckenmiller 64%, Greenspan 52%) have high turnover — their disclosed positions may no longer reflect current holdings.

Limitations: 13F shows longs-only. No visibility into shorts, puts used as hedges, total-return swaps, or any non-US holdings. Concentrated funds like CAS Investment Partners (5 positions) have cleaner signal than diversified funds.

Scope: This report analyzes each fund's top 7-13 positions, not their full portfolio. Signals outside this top-tier coverage are not captured.

ℹ️ This is a manual validation run. The scheduled cron (May 18) will run with the same logic on Q1 2026 data.

Kill-Switch Status

VIX level: Not checked (would need live market data feed — cron will pull this live)

Active kill-switches: None this quarter

Special situation flags: None this quarter

🟢 FULL 20-FUND RUN — Dry Run Validation

Executive Summary

Top 10 Signals at a Glance

📖 How to Read This Report (Share-Ready Walkthrough)

Step 1 — Start with the Executive Summary

Step 2 — Look at the Top 10 Signals table

Step 3 — Click any signal row to expand the detail

Step 4 — Check the Sector Rotation tab

Step 5 — Check the Cult Stocks tab before trading

Step 6 — Read the Methodology & FAQ tab

How to Actually Use This (Practical Playbook)

Quick-Share Summary (if you're sending this to a friend)

📊 Q/Q Changes: Q3 2025 → Q4 2025

🆕 New Signals This Quarter

❌ Dropped Signals

📊 Score Deltas

🔄 Tier Migrations

🌊 Sector Rotation Momentum

🎯 Fund-Level Position Changes

📋 Executive Signal Brief — Analyst Short List

📈 4-Quarter Trajectory

🆕 Fresh Entries — First Appeared This Quarter (31)

🔥 Accelerating — Score Jumped Sharply (7)

↗ Building — Steady Multi-Quarter Growth (12)

🔁 Recurring — Held 4+ Quarters (114)

↘ Unwinding — Score Declining (39)

↓ Decaying — Steep Multi-Quarter Drop (19)

🎯 Sector Momentum

🔄 Price Action Validation

🔄 REBOUNDING — Smart Money Entry Validated by Tape (2)

→ DRIFTING — No Strong Directional Move (6)

🚀 CHASING — Rally Already Happened (6)

💰 Price & Valuation — Post-13F Context

Price Edge Distribution

Per-Signal Price & Valuation

How to Read the Price Edge Bands

Valuation Interpretation Quick Reference

💎 Hidden Value / Suppressed Signals

Tier 1: Consensus Signals (3+ Funds Converging)

Tier 2: Solo-Expert Contrarian Signals

Tier 3: Cross-Domain Emerging Signals

REDUCE Signals (2+ Funds Exiting)

All Complete Exits (Watchlist)

Sector Rotation Meta-Signal

Sector Flows: Net Positive

Sector Flows: Net Negative

Cult-Stock Watch

Per-Fund Activity Breakdown

Visual Analytics

Signal Formula

❓ FAQ — Plain-English Answers

What does a "good" signal look like?

What's the "Cult Penalty" and why does it exist?

What's the "Tiger Cub Haircut"?

Why didn't GOOGL/META/MSFT signal? Everyone's buying them.

What's the difference between the 3 tiers?

What does Entry Quality mean?

What's "Freshness" — why does fund turnover matter?

What's "Conviction"?

What does "Action" encode?

What's "Style Diversity"?

Why 3.0 as the emission threshold?

What are the Exit Signals?

Why did Healthcare show as a losing sector when my last report was Druckenmiller-heavy?

What about cult stocks that have FALLEN since the 13F? Aren't those interesting?

Why aren't Hidden Value names auto-emitted as Tier-1/2/3 signals?

What's the "rescue score"?

How is today's stock price factored into the signal score?

Then how do I know if the current price still makes sense?

What do the Price Edge bands mean?

"Below cutoff" — that sounds too good. Isn't smart money catching a falling knife?

What's "vs SPY"?

How do I read the valuation metrics?

Where does the price data come from?

Why didn't my signal's valuation show certain metrics?

What kill-switches exist?

How often does this run?

What can this NOT see?

What if a fund files an amended 13F later?

Is this financial advice?